# Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC

> Beijing Guoan FC leads at 57%, runner-up 23% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/beijing-guoan-fc-vs-dalian-yingbo-fc
Updated: 2026-05-03T15:05:51.883Z
Category: general · Topic: china
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Leader: Beijing Guoan FC at 57%
- Runner-up: Dalian Yingbo FC at 23%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $86

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beijing Guoan FC | 57¢ | +2pp | $2 | polymarket | /markets/beijing-guoan-fc-vs-dalian-yingbo-fc-beijing-guoan-polymarket-0xf01918eea22a0e322918de91230de4c3c23af0fbae614994896ffd4a1493b115 |
| Dalian Yingbo FC | 23¢ | −3pp | $45 | polymarket | /markets/beijing-guoan-fc-vs-dalian-yingbo-fc-dalian-yingbo-polymarket-0x49cf3f5798088c5e4dd8a05df46ab949f8f7cf75a6d496edf1b8fab7bd317a83 |
| Draw (Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC) | 23¢ | −5pp | $39 | polymarket | /markets/beijing-guoan-fc-vs-dalian-yingbo-fc-draw-beijing-polymarket-0x331ebca57157765abb9b4b2733b18357bc80ff31210a36b843648025675ebacc |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Beijing Guoan FC | Dalian Yingbo FC | Draw (Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 40 | 41 | 36 |
| 2026-05-02 | 42 | 38 | 31 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Draw (Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC) −5pp 36→31¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Dalian Yingbo FC −3pp 41→38¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability represents the chance that Beijing Guoan FC will defeat Dalian Yingbo FC in their upcoming match. The 37% baseline reflects modest confidence in a Beijing Guoan victory, though notable disagreement exists between prediction venues—Polymarket traders assess the probability 9 percentage points higher than Kalshi participants. The probability will shift based on team form leading into the match, injury status of key players, and head-to-head historical performance. Resolution occurs when the match concludes and the final result is recorded. Current contract activity shows relatively balanced betting interest between a Dalian Yingbo win and a draw outcome, both priced near 23¢, while over/under markets suggest expectations for a low-scoring contest.

### Key factors

- Polymarket prices Beijing Guoan at 39% average versus 30% on Kalshi, indicating genuine analytical disagreement rather than fringe positions
- Draw probability is priced identically to Dalian Yingbo victory (23¢), suggesting markets view all three outcomes as roughly competitive
- Over/under markets clustered at 1.5 (82¢), 2.5 (61¢), and 3.5 (41¢) indicate strong expectation of low-scoring play
- Trading volume concentrated in win/draw/loss contracts ($45-39 24h) while total goals markets show minimal activity ($0-8), reflecting uncertainty resolution dependency
- Beijing Guoan represents the less-favored outcome despite home-venue implications for Chinese Super League fixtures

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

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- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/china

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