# Beijing Guoan FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 33% across 20 contracts — refreshed 5 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/beijing-guoan-fc-vs-tianjin-jinmen-hu-fc
Updated: 2026-05-03T13:20:08.231Z
Category: general · Topic: china
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 33% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $223

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC | 28¢ | +2pp | $68 | polymarket | /markets/qingdao-xihaian-fc-vs-tianjin-jinmen-hu-fc-tianjin-polymarket-0x2991179aa767ba457eea1f77fde7ffa39648cedc64a7c5bb309627b9544ea858 |
| Dalian Yingbo FC | 23¢ | −3pp | $45 | polymarket | /markets/beijing-guoan-fc-vs-dalian-yingbo-fc-dalian-yingbo-polymarket-0x49cf3f5798088c5e4dd8a05df46ab949f8f7cf75a6d496edf1b8fab7bd317a83 |
| O/U 3.5 | 25¢ | −1pp | $44 | polymarket | /markets/qingdao-xihaian-fc-vs-tianjin-jinmen-hu-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x8508f6f66547a3d128b727e49434f7a9aa93f3e01d02cea7b55b4698e26c067a |
| Draw (Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC) | 23¢ | −5pp | $39 | polymarket | /markets/beijing-guoan-fc-vs-dalian-yingbo-fc-draw-beijing-polymarket-0x331ebca57157765abb9b4b2733b18357bc80ff31210a36b843648025675ebacc |
| O/U 2.5 | 47¢ | ±0 | $10 | polymarket | /markets/qingdao-xihaian-fc-vs-tianjin-jinmen-hu-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x8c7c03c972df3c78569568b6d77b24c6d573ba28a550321416fef8f87b53b8bb |
| Qingdao Xihaian FC | 46¢ | −2pp | $8 | polymarket | /markets/qingdao-xihaian-fc-vs-tianjin-jinmen-hu-fc-qingdao-polymarket-0x5734d6c26535c770891eec79ec054a0c2e07aa03c8d220cd11af7d0f2d8fd64b |
| O/U 2.5 | 63¢ | — | $8 | polymarket | /markets/beijing-guoan-fc-vs-dalian-yingbo-fc-more-markets-polymarket-0xd0a2f0efd684af9051d535ebfb688b7037a3996508900509e3edc8d229d702d4 |
| Beijing Guoan FC | 57¢ | +2pp | $2 | polymarket | /markets/beijing-guoan-fc-vs-dalian-yingbo-fc-beijing-guoan-polymarket-0xf01918eea22a0e322918de91230de4c3c23af0fbae614994896ffd4a1493b115 |
| O/U 4.5 | 9¢ | +10pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/qingdao-xihaian-fc-vs-tianjin-jinmen-hu-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x2251c76451147ffe2e3d62aa4b91b9f3a498227a73f944c285db6a7ce9c1d389 |
| Qingdao Xihaian FC (-2.5) | 8¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/qingdao-xihaian-fc-vs-tianjin-jinmen-hu-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x6ffa32b3fe4389869e2525bd7365949c713bc91b8a65b665a535047d17e5eeea |
| O/U 1.5 | 72¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/qingdao-xihaian-fc-vs-tianjin-jinmen-hu-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x2c997e8ea7dec3233847fdf312db2526bf2927fe76a623a176ba361e243e95c4 |
| Qingdao Xihaian FC (-1.5) | 19¢ | +10pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/qingdao-xihaian-fc-vs-tianjin-jinmen-hu-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x817c8ed93d0ba366891ef64aafa93c326c0c3de3cd93c5ed40dd449b9b72fc3f |
| O/U 4.5 | 23¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/beijing-guoan-fc-vs-dalian-yingbo-fc-more-markets-polymarket-0x7eaf4e46731eb3c7efcc3e74ffe1444df46671214afdf62cc8fcbf8616c1d03e |
| Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5) | 34¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/beijing-guoan-fc-vs-dalian-yingbo-fc-more-markets-polymarket-0x7319259da8cf5055776db5df89202814cde7710d46e8b35a2f61a0af3fa25c99 |
| Dalian Yingbo FC (-1.5) | 13¢ | +13pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/beijing-guoan-fc-vs-dalian-yingbo-fc-more-markets-polymarket-0xa820b44626be19ed92b577e4843559aa079687aab812138b2d4a067b21ba50da |
| Draw (Qingdao Xihaian FC vs. Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC) | 28¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/qingdao-xihaian-fc-vs-tianjin-jinmen-hu-fc-draw-qi-polymarket-0x47b594ce43080cb4d7aa3437b3f51532904a36f95902d374e833e42983618c5a |
| Dalian Yingbo FC (-2.5) | 11¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/beijing-guoan-fc-vs-dalian-yingbo-fc-more-markets-polymarket-0xabf5f0fe5460feaa70901d1fbaba1a0b8ae789d8380cf2d8d67ab738832ee2ae |
| Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC (-2.5) | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/qingdao-xihaian-fc-vs-tianjin-jinmen-hu-fc-more-ma-polymarket-0x3ed80522e974fdc46cee79f4dca0a45753bc0bab4a563b6fdfe5f982d945a3e4 |
| O/U 1.5 | 83¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/beijing-guoan-fc-vs-dalian-yingbo-fc-more-markets-polymarket-0x40161963962b8f77c1298da6c8338a8cbabb32c59102ac2c8c8f1f56ab49be41 |
| O/U 3.5 | 41¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/beijing-guoan-fc-vs-dalian-yingbo-fc-more-markets-polymarket-0x3ff606b99c24d4c886534599d596a64de569f7c053b4512c9176e268c5af2e24 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 36 |
| 2026-05-02 | 34 |
| 2026-05-03 | 28 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Dalian Yingbo FC (-1.5) +13pp 15→28¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · O/U 4.5 +10pp 16→26¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Qingdao Xihaian FC (-1.5) +10pp 25→35¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Qingdao Xihaian FC (-2.5) −7pp 30→23¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Qingdao Xihaian FC +6pp 42→48¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

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- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/china

## License

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