# Will RSC Anderlecht win the Belgian Pro League

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 9% across 3 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/belgianpl
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:38.549Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-15

## Headline

- Probability: 9% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Truidense VV | 22¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-st-truidense-vv-win-the-belgian-pro-league-st-kalshi-kxbelgianpl-26-stt |
| RSC Anderlecht | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-rsc-anderlecht-win-the-belgian-pro-league-rsc-kalshi-kxbelgianpl-26-rsc |
| Union Saint-Gilloise | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-union-saint-gilloise-win-the-belgian-pro-leag-kalshi-kxbelgianpl-26-usg |

## Analysis

This 9% probability reflects market expectations that RSC Anderlecht will win the 2026 Belgian Pro League championship. The odds suggest traders view Anderlecht as a significant underdog, likely reflecting their historical performance relative to dominant Belgian clubs like Club Brugge and Union Saint-Gilloise. The probability could shift based on their mid-season performance metrics—particularly their points accumulation, goal differential, and injury status of key players. The main uncertainty will resolve through the league's final matches in May 2026, when the champion is mathematically determined. Current market pricing reflects approximately 91% probability that another Belgian team claims the title, indicating confidence that Anderlecht faces substantial competition for the championship.

### Key factors

- Current league standings and Anderlecht's points total relative to competitors as of May 2026
- Remaining fixture difficulty and head-to-head results against direct title contenders
- Historical win rates: Anderlecht's championship frequency versus Union Saint-Gilloise and Club Brugge over the past 5 seasons
- Depth and injury status of Anderlecht's squad compared to rivals
- Trading volume and price movement on this contract relative to other Belgian Pro League winner markets

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/belgianpl
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=belgianpl

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.