# Belgium vs. Egypt

> Belgium leads at 59%, runner-up 24% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/belgium-vs-egypt
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:43.381Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-15

## Headline

- Leader: Belgium at 59%
- Runner-up: Draw (Belgium vs. Egypt) at 24%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $149

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium | 59¢ | +1pp | $149 | polymarket | /markets/belgium-vs-egypt-belgium-polymarket-0x3ceb5b631318be5000758200590efe2b308a581d6787c3e7bc050bfd8f627627 |
| Draw (Belgium vs. Egypt) | 24¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/belgium-vs-egypt-draw-belgium-vs-egypt-polymarket-0x36f93dcdb75e18f9dd7f4bd4f976dd901562e6f779a86c8ac847f154e37e69d2 |
| Egypt | 19¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/belgium-vs-egypt-egypt-polymarket-0x3f9bec31cf8e8550470626fbd15382e20a18e46af27358cad575a5ef5bf660de |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Belgium | Draw (Belgium vs. Egypt) | Egypt |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 59 | 27 | 18 |
| 2026-05-02 | 57 | 27 | 18 |
| 2026-05-08 | 58 | 25 | 19 |
| 2026-05-09 | 59 | — | 19 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Draw (Belgium vs. Egypt) −3pp 29→26¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 38% probability reflects market expectations that Belgium will win an upcoming match against Egypt. The current price suggests traders view Belgium as the slight favorite, with Egypt considered a competitive underdog. Market pricing would likely shift based on team form and lineup availability in the weeks before the match. Recent performance trends, injury reports, and head-to-head historical records typically influence such probabilities. The match outcome itself will definitively resolve this contract when played, making pre-match team news and betting market movements the primary drivers of probability changes until kickoff.

### Key factors

- Belgium's FIFA ranking and recent competitive record versus Egypt's ranking and recent form
- Availability of key players for both teams, particularly any injuries or suspensions announced before the match
- Historical head-to-head results and goal differential between the two nations in competitive matches
- Home or away venue designation and how it affects typical win probabilities for each side
- Trading volume and line movement on major prediction markets in the 48 hours before kickoff

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/belgium-vs-egypt
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=belgium-vs-egypt

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.