# Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/belgium-vs-ir-iran-ir-iran
Updated: 2026-06-18T05:20:21.689Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: iran
Status: historical

## Headline

- Probability: 12% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $5K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IR Iran | 12¢ | ±0 | $5K | polymarket | /markets/belgium-vs-ir-iran-ir-iran-polymarket-0xc4a229b06046a4a30d9b5cd73fc6364f6b7cdc48efc33bfc6b24a2806aa93f30 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | 12 |
| 2026-06-05 | 11 |
| 2026-06-12 | 13 |
| 2026-06-14 | 13 |

_18 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability represents the market's assessment that IR Iran will win or draw in an upcoming match against Belgium. At 12%, the market is pricing Iran as a significant underdog. The current odds reflect Belgium's higher FIFA ranking and recent performance metrics, while also accounting for Iran's home-field advantage and historical performance in competitive matches. The key uncertainty centers on team composition, recent form leading into the match, and tactical matchups on the day of play. The match result will definitively resolve this contract when the fixture is completed.

### Key factors

- Belgium's FIFA ranking and recent international match record compared to Iran's current standing
- Iran's historical performance in home fixtures versus away performance in competitive international matches
- Recent injury reports and roster availability for both teams in the weeks leading to kickoff
- Head-to-head historical record and outcomes from previous competitive matchups between the nations
- Pre-match betting odds from major sports books and their implied probability for an Iran victory or draw

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/belgium-vs-ir-iran-ir-iran
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=belgium-vs-ir-iran-ir-iran
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.