# Belgium vs. IR Iran

> Belgium leads at 67%, runner-up 32% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/belgium-vs-ir-iran
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:39.030Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: iran
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-21

## Headline

- Leader: Belgium at 67%
- Runner-up: Draw (Belgium vs. IR Iran) at 32%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium | 67¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/belgium-vs-ir-iran-belgium-polymarket-0xebb200cb08bbe89c2523a345947d083a992e27cc479cf1b5568407751e026d2c |
| Draw (Belgium vs. IR Iran) | 32¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/belgium-vs-ir-iran-draw-belgium-vs-ir-iran-polymarket-0x11e878643f63c75e36d58024033ae710c19e696f652fa05ba705ab019402a633 |
| IR Iran | 27¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/belgium-vs-ir-iran-ir-iran-polymarket-0xc4a229b06046a4a30d9b5cd73fc6364f6b7cdc48efc33bfc6b24a2806aa93f30 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Belgium | Draw (Belgium vs. IR Iran) | IR Iran |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | — | 29 | 28 |
| 2026-05-01 | 69 | 29 | 28 |
| 2026-05-02 | 69 | 29 | 27 |
| 2026-05-03 | 70 | 29 | 29 |
| 2026-05-07 | 68 | 31 | 30 |
| 2026-05-08 | 68 | 32 | — |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability represents the likelihood that Belgium will defeat Iran in an upcoming match. The 36% aggregate probability reflects meaningful disagreement between venues—Polymarket traders price Belgium's chances at 38% while Kalshi traders estimate 25%, a 13-point gap that suggests uncertainty about either Belgium's form or Iran's strength relative to consensus. The current level would shift based on team lineups, recent head-to-head performance, and momentum entering the match. Key upcoming factors include official team confirmations closer to match day and any recent results from either nation that would signal current competitive standing. The resolution depends on the match outcome itself, which will settle all related contracts once completed.

### Key factors

- Kalshi-Polymarket pricing gap of 13 percentage points indicates material disagreement between trading venues on Belgium's win probability
- Zero volume on all listed contracts in the past 24 hours suggests limited recent trading activity and potentially stale price discovery
- Belgium priced at 57¢ to beat Egypt on Polymarket, while Iran priced at 40¢ to beat Egypt, creating potential implied probability inconsistencies if all three teams compete
- Draw outcome for Belgium-Iran match priced at 30¢, indicating traders assign non-trivial probability to a tie rather than a decisive result
- Related Egypt contracts exist across venues, suggesting this may be part of a larger tournament or group-stage competition where multiple matchups carry interdependent information

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/belgium-vs-ir-iran
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=belgium-vs-ir-iran
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

## License

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