# Bengaluru FC vs. Mumbai City FC

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 35% across 20 contracts — refreshed 6 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/bengaluru-fc-vs-mumbai-city-fc
Updated: 2026-05-03T15:05:53.098Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-17

## Headline

- Probability: 35% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 46% / Polymarket 32% — 14pp spread
- 24h volume: $855

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zero Tenacity | 16¢ | +3pp | $420 | kalshi | /markets/will-zero-tenacity-win-the-zero-tenacity-vs-nigma-kalshi-kxdota2game-26may031100z10ngx-z10 |
| Mumbai Indians | 36¢ | — | $245 | kalshi | /markets/royal-challengers-bengaluru-vs-mumbai-indians-winn-kalshi-kxiplgame-26may10mircb-mi |
| Nigma Galaxy | 82¢ | ±0 | $158 | kalshi | /markets/will-nigma-galaxy-win-the-zero-tenacity-vs-nigma-g-kalshi-kxdota2game-26may031100z10ngx-ngx |
| Draw (Odisha FC vs. Bengaluru FC) | 27¢ | +8pp | $30 | polymarket | /markets/odisha-fc-vs-bengaluru-fc-draw-odisha-fc-vs-bengal-polymarket-0x3e1682e973c76fd02126c8b46e04b78cf5a70d92cd70eff3adc96a1338a8ffd0 |
| Zero Tenacity | 23¢ | +2pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-zero-tenacity-win-map-2-in-the-zero-tenacity-kalshi-kxdota2map-26may031100z10ngx-2-z10 |
| Draw (Mumbai City FC vs. East Bengal FC) | 28¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mumbai-city-fc-vs-east-bengal-fc-draw-mumbai-city-polymarket-0xcfe0a0f4b610c11201613e50d214a45fff7ec7a1dc0041c8dc30e8216a9235ee |
| O/U 3.5 | 27¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mumbai-city-fc-vs-east-bengal-fc-more-markets-ou-3-polymarket-0x8a0a7cd897a95105009d3b62506a9ad322007a30437f184f30da7b1882f29c4e |
| East Bengal FC (-2.5) | 5¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mumbai-city-fc-vs-east-bengal-fc-more-markets-east-polymarket-0x39ca4c9671c66f04c8c1d8778c0cda06ba2c6287d25ce9366dedfaccf4069a02 |
| O/U 2.5 | 47¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mumbai-city-fc-vs-east-bengal-fc-more-markets-ou-2-polymarket-0xc8761a39c548cf21fe99831e32fb9480a701f391bbf2027b09f928afd428bc65 |
| Mumbai City FC | 33¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mumbai-city-fc-vs-east-bengal-fc-mumbai-city-fc-polymarket-0xffedbd8c917d9b7a7b06028e7f1a6bc917997dc650dab42570216778620ba322 |
| O/U 4.5 | 13¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mumbai-city-fc-vs-east-bengal-fc-more-markets-ou-4-polymarket-0x53fd8b923d5e1f12a9478a352cefc4d33c01ca82e35715c6cd4740834b1fa3a0 |
| Mumbai City FC (-2.5) | 4¢ | +7pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mumbai-city-fc-vs-east-bengal-fc-more-markets-mumb-polymarket-0x870a5070cb227431dd8fa05a817bcfe2a8b48c71e801586b5639d147d7b97744 |
| East Bengal FC | 38¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mumbai-city-fc-vs-east-bengal-fc-east-bengal-fc-polymarket-0x97080aed734d9384307a960b9fa99616b7c999b6bb50e47fc6c242e58738f8a2 |
| Both Teams to Score | 54¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mumbai-city-fc-vs-east-bengal-fc-more-markets-both-polymarket-0x4d7c4d3d2a8333e19cc0f197aa44846a2b1667626e96254e8086a4f61c2e2b66 |
| East Bengal FC (-1.5) | 15¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mumbai-city-fc-vs-east-bengal-fc-more-markets-east-polymarket-0x1ef468ee3081d30662507065ce715a91db79b15ca6d9b4751e4f518e347d3cd4 |
| Mumbai City FC (-1.5) | 12¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mumbai-city-fc-vs-east-bengal-fc-more-markets-mumb-polymarket-0x859e14eb8d562e2f86de05a1bed5fea9676ee2c949cf0e1467b322ad4c55c478 |
| O/U 1.5 | 73¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mumbai-city-fc-vs-east-bengal-fc-more-markets-ou-1-polymarket-0x1c8aa188facd606d71772f42672c1b35779ae17347353414187548038770811a |
| Nigma Galaxy | 71¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nigma-galaxy-win-map-1-in-the-zero-tenacity-v-kalshi-kxdota2map-26may031100z10ngx-1-ngx |
| CD Palestino | 25¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montevideo-city-torque-vs-cd-palestino-cd-palestin-polymarket-0x3299d6bee2481093d7ef9a78adeadd03771f46740c1e9780b2881d52ab08ce11 |
| O/U 1.5 | 75¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/odisha-fc-vs-bengaluru-fc-more-markets-ou-15-polymarket-0x23e3ab447bc4179efd9820bb826086b528accae25c840d888843c76ef34524e9 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 38 |
| 2026-05-01 | 31 |
| 2026-05-02 | 36 |
| 2026-05-03 | 32 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Nigma Galaxy +34pp 37→71¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Zero Tenacity +10pp 12→22¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Nigma Galaxy +9pp 70→79¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Draw (Odisha FC vs. Bengaluru FC) +8pp 31→39¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Mumbai City FC (-2.5) +7pp 14→21¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/bengaluru-fc-vs-mumbai-city-fc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=bengaluru-fc-vs-mumbai-city-fc

## License

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