# Will Die Linke finish 4th in the 2026 Berlin state election

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 17% across 5 contracts — refreshed 47 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/berlin4th
Updated: 2026-08-27T07:21:45.946Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-09-20

## Headline

- Probability: 17% (liquidity-weighted across 5 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $5K

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Die Linke | 4¢ | −1pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-die-linke-finish-4th-in-the-2026-berlin-state-kalshi-kxberlin4th-26sep20-4-dlin |
| Grüne | 41¢ | ±0 | $297 | kalshi | /markets/will-grne-finish-4th-in-the-2026-berlin-state-elec-kalshi-kxberlin4th-26sep20-4-grun |
| AfD | 16¢ | +8pp | $20 | kalshi | /markets/will-afd-finish-4th-in-the-2026-berlin-state-elect-kalshi-kxberlin4th-26sep20-4-afd |
| SPD | 13¢ | +7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-spd-finish-4th-in-the-2026-berlin-state-elect-kalshi-kxberlin4th-26sep20-4-spd |
| CDU | 10¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cdu-finish-4th-in-the-2026-berlin-state-elect-kalshi-kxberlin4th-26sep20-4-cdu |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | 21 |
| 2026-08-27 | 20 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-26 · Grüne +25pp 16→41¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-25 · Grüne +14pp 2→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-25 · AfD +8pp 2→10¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-25 · SPD +7pp 2→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-26 · CDU +6pp 7→13¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the chance that Die Linke finishes in fourth place in the 2026 Berlin state election. Die Linke currently faces structural challenges in Berlin politics: the party has experienced declining support in recent years and competes for left-wing voters alongside the Greens and SPD. The 5% probability suggests markets view a fourth-place finish as unlikely but plausible. Movement in this probability would primarily depend on polling trends in the months leading to the election and whether Die Linke can stabilize or regain voter support. The Berlin state election scheduled for 2026 will definitively resolve this outcome, determining the actual final rankings of all participating parties.

### Key factors

- Die Linke's current polling position relative to SPD, Greens, and other parties in recent Berlin surveys
- Historical vote share trends for Die Linke in Berlin elections over the past decade
- Voter coalition dynamics and potential redistribution between left-wing parties (SPD, Greens, Die Linke)
- Turnout patterns in Berlin elections and whether they favor or disadvantage Die Linke's base
- Comparative market probabilities for other parties finishing fourth, which currently show Greens at 9¢ as the frontrunner for that position

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/berlin4th
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=berlin4th
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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