# Will Elif Eralp win the election for Governing Mayor of Berlin by the Berlin House of Representatives following their state election

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 15% across 3 contracts — refreshed 35 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/berlingovmayor
Updated: 2026-09-21T23:21:02.301Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-10-01

## Headline

- Probability: 15% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $200

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefan Evers | 18¢ | −6pp | $139 | kalshi | /markets/will-stefan-evers-win-the-election-for-governing-m-kalshi-kxberlingovmayor-26oct01-seve |
| Elif Eralp | 24¢ | −1pp | $60 | kalshi | /markets/will-elif-eralp-win-the-election-for-governing-may-kalshi-kxberlingovmayor-26oct01-eera |
| Werner Graf | 3¢ | +2pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-werner-graf-win-the-election-for-governing-ma-kalshi-kxberlingovmayor-26oct01-wgra |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | 18 |
| 2026-09-07 | 26 |
| 2026-09-12 | 28 |
| 2026-09-19 | 23 |

_25 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-18 · Elif Eralp −15pp 56→41¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · Werner Graf +11pp 2→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · Werner Graf −11pp 13→2¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · Stefan Evers +6pp 25→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-19 · Stefan Evers −6pp 31→25¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the estimated likelihood that Elif Eralp will become Governing Mayor of Berlin following the state election, as determined by the Berlin House of Representatives. The 4% estimate suggests markets view Eralp as a long-shot candidate relative to better-positioned frontrunners like Steffen Krach and Stefan Evers, who are trading at 5 cents. Movement in this probability would depend on shifts in polling data, coalition negotiations outcomes, and party performance in the upcoming election. The main catalyst driving resolution is the Berlin state election itself, after which the House of Representatives will vote to elect the next Governing Mayor. Current low trading volume across all mayoral candidates indicates limited market activity and potentially thin liquidity for these contracts.

### Key factors

- Eralp's current contract price of 4 cents ranks her below the two frontrunners (5 cents each) and equal to Werner Graf despite different party positioning and name recognition
- Berlin state election results will determine parliamentary composition and coalition possibilities, directly affecting which candidates remain viable for the mayoralty
- Post-election coalition negotiations between parties will determine which candidates can secure sufficient votes in the House of Representatives
- Comparison to other long-shot candidates (Brinker and Graf at 3 cents) provides market consensus on her relative chances versus lower-probability alternatives
- Trading volume of $0 across all mayoral contracts suggests minimal market participation and potential price discovery issues

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/berlingovmayor
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=berlingovmayor
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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