# Will Bernie Sanders endorse Antonio Delgado in the 2026 New York gubernatorial election before Nov 3, 2026

> Cori Bush leads at 90%, runner-up 80% across 13 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 31 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/bernieendorse
Updated: 2026-06-08T07:20:10.361Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-11-03

## Headline

- Leader: Cori Bush at 90%
- Runner-up: James Talarico at 80%
- Outcomes: 13 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (13 contracts)
- 24h volume: $110

## Bound contracts (13)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cori Bush | 90¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bernie-sanders-endorse-cori-bush-in-the-2026-kalshi-kxbernieendorse-26nov03-cbus |
| James Talarico | 80¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bernie-sanders-endorse-james-talarico-in-the-kalshi-kxbernieendorse-26nov03-jtal |
| Gina Hinojosa | 79¢ | +7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bernie-sanders-endorse-gina-hinojosa-in-the-2-kalshi-kxbernieendorse-26nov03-ghin |
| Charles Booker | 71¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bernie-sanders-endorse-charles-booker-in-the-kalshi-kxbernieendorse-26nov03-cboo |
| Nithya Raman | 47¢ | +1pp | $110 | kalshi | /markets/will-bernie-sanders-endorse-nithya-raman-in-the-20-kalshi-kxbernieendorse-26nov03-nram |
| Dan Osborn | 43¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bernie-sanders-endorse-dan-osborn-in-the-2026-kalshi-kxbernieendorse-26nov03-dosb |
| Josh Turek | 32¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bernie-sanders-endorse-josh-turek-in-iowa-sen-kalshi-kxbernieendorse-26nov03-jtur |
| Juliana Stratton | 27¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bernie-sanders-endorse-juliana-stratton-in-th-kalshi-kxbernieendorse-26nov03-jstr |
| Mary Peltola | 23¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bernie-sanders-endorse-mary-peltola-in-the-20-kalshi-kxbernieendorse-26nov03-mpel |
| Xavier Becerra | 17¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bernie-sanders-endorse-xavier-becerra-in-the-kalshi-kxbernieendorse-26nov03-xbec |
| Antonio Delgado | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bernie-sanders-endorse-antonio-delgado-in-the-kalshi-kxbernieendorse-26nov03-adel |
| Alan Grayson | 4¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bernie-sanders-endorse-alan-grayson-in-the-20-kalshi-kxbernieendorse-26nov03-agra |
| Tom Steyer | 3¢ | −8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bernie-sanders-endorse-tom-steyer-in-2026-cal-kalshi-kxbernieendorse-26nov03-tste |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Cori Bush | James Talarico | Gina Hinojosa |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 91 | 70 | — |
| 2026-05-13 | 90 | 84 | 62 |
| 2026-05-22 | 89 | 85 | — |
| 2026-05-23 | — | 85 | — |
| 2026-05-28 | 90 | 85 | 71 |
| 2026-05-31 | 90 | 82 | 71 |
| 2026-06-03 | — | 83 | 78 |
| 2026-06-07 | — | 80 | — |

_20 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-07 · Nithya Raman +18pp 29→47¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-04 · Tom Steyer −9pp 15→6¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-03 · Nithya Raman +8pp 29→37¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-05 · Tom Steyer +8pp 6→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-07 · Tom Steyer −8pp 11→3¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market asks whether Bernie Sanders will publicly endorse Antonio Delgado for New York governor before Election Day 2026. At 31% probability, the market suggests it's unlikely but plausible. Sanders has a history of selective endorsements in gubernatorial races, often backing candidates aligned with his progressive platform. Delgado, the current New York Lieutenant Governor, would need to secure Sanders' support through demonstrated policy alignment or a formal request. The divergence between venues (Kalshi at 33%, Polymarket at 24%) reflects genuine uncertainty about Sanders' endorsement strategy in 2026. The main factor driving this probability is whether Delgado emerges as the clear progressive candidate in New York's race and actively seeks Sanders' backing. Key uncertainty centers on whether Sanders will focus his limited endorsement capital on federal races versus state contests. Resolution will occur either through Sanders making an explicit public endorsement or the election passing without one.

### Key factors

- Sanders has endorsed selectively in gubernatorial races; his 2022 pattern and 2026 priorities remain unclear
- Delgado's positioning as a progressive candidate and whether he actively pursues Sanders' endorsement
- The competitive structure of the 2026 New York gubernatorial race and whether it attracts Sanders' involvement
- Sanders' overall endorsement bandwidth in 2026, given potential focus on federal Senate or presidential races
- Public statements or campaign communications from Delgado's team indicating pursuit of high-profile progressive endorsements

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/bernieendorse
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=bernieendorse
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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