# Which company has the best AI model?

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 37% across 24 contracts — refreshed 20 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/best-ai-model-2026
Updated: 2026-06-08T06:41:43.726Z
Category: technology
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 37% (liquidity-weighted across 24 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 40% / Polymarket 34% — 6pp spread
- 24h volume: $4.2M

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 86¢ | ±0 | $1.4M | polymarket | /markets/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-june-anthro-polymarket-0xa4d72632ac0ddadcac5247ffc586a193f1bc3bc839cf9ce993c2471e0d599cca |
| Google | 10¢ | −2pp | $976K | polymarket | /markets/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-june-google-polymarket-0x0bd1b836a2494f80aaee62927cf01e5f6fceb19114e96fc517c6440aea4576e4 |
| OpenAI | 5¢ | ±0 | $871K | polymarket | /markets/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-of-june-openai-polymarket-0x734c6c32a62f8a27035a222e45fc388d59eeffe89bb31ab26054bc29bcc3eee7 |
| Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? | 60¢ | +2pp | $184K | kalshi | /markets/which-ai-company-will-have-the-best-coding-model-o-kalshi-kxcodingmodel-26dec-anth |
| Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? | 6¢ | −1pp | $136K | kalshi | /markets/which-ai-company-will-have-the-best-coding-model-o-kalshi-kxcodingmodel-26dec-goog |
| Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? | 32¢ | +1pp | $101K | kalshi | /markets/which-ai-company-will-have-the-best-coding-model-o-kalshi-kxcodingmodel-26dec-open |
| Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? | 6¢ | −1pp | $99K | kalshi | /markets/which-ai-company-will-have-the-best-coding-model-o-kalshi-kxcodingmodel-26dec-xai |
| Will Anthropic release Mythos before Jul 1, 2026? | 78¢ | +12pp | $89K | kalshi | /markets/will-anthropic-release-mythos-before-jul-1-2026-kalshi-kxclaude-myth-26jul01 |
| Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? | 1¢ | — | $62K | kalshi | /markets/which-ai-company-will-have-the-best-coding-model-o-kalshi-kxcodingmodel-26dec-deep |
| Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? | 2¢ | — | $54K | kalshi | /markets/which-ai-company-will-have-the-best-coding-model-o-kalshi-kxcodingmodel-26dec-moon |
| OpenAI | 4¢ | +1pp | $45K | polymarket | /markets/which-company-has-second-best-ai-model-end-of-june-polymarket-0x06a7a20c1c36f9f894d759237644e2dd4b446c048f2bfda6d8bc2b99313002c6 |
| Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? | 1¢ | — | $42K | kalshi | /markets/which-ai-company-will-have-the-best-coding-model-o-kalshi-kxcodingmodel-26dec-alib |
| Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? | 1¢ | — | $40K | kalshi | /markets/which-ai-company-will-have-the-best-coding-model-o-kalshi-kxcodingmodel-26dec-zai |
| Will Anthropic release A model called Claude 5 or greater before Jul 1, 2026? | 65¢ | — | $34K | kalshi | /markets/will-anthropic-release-a-model-called-claude-5-or-kalshi-kxclaude-clau-26jul01 |
| Anthropic | 67¢ | −2pp | $32K | polymarket | /markets/which-company-has-second-best-ai-model-end-of-june-polymarket-0xd0e97d28b706d26f47ada6b739674efe7768bf7a407481008474d5a0d4c4c55a |
| Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026? | 1¢ | — | $13K | kalshi | /markets/which-ai-company-will-have-the-best-coding-model-o-kalshi-kxcodingmodel-26dec-baid |
| Will Anthropic release A model called Claude 5 or greater before Aug 1, 2026? | 74¢ | — | $10K | kalshi | /markets/will-anthropic-release-a-model-called-claude-5-or-kalshi-kxclaude-clau-26aug01 |
| Will Anthropic release A model called Claude 5 or greater before Oct 1, 2026? | 74¢ | — | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-anthropic-release-a-model-called-claude-5-or-kalshi-kxclaude-clau-26oct01 |
| Will Anthropic release A model called Claude 5 or greater before Sep 1, 2026? | 99¢ | — | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-anthropic-release-a-model-called-claude-5-or-kalshi-kxclaude-clau-26sep01 |
| Will Anthropic release A model called Claude 5 or greater before Nov 1, 2026? | 94¢ | — | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-anthropic-release-a-model-called-claude-5-or-kalshi-kxclaude-clau-26nov01 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 32 |
| 2026-05-25 | 32 |
| 2026-06-01 | 35 |
| 2026-06-08 | 52 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-06 · Anthropic −17pp 88→71¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-04 · Will Anthropic release Mythos before Jul 1, 2026? +13pp 23→36¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-08 · Will Anthropic release Mythos before Jul 1, 2026? +12pp 60→72¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-06 · Will Anthropic release Mythos before Jul 1, 2026? +11pp 40→51¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-07 · Will Anthropic release Mythos before Jul 1, 2026? +9pp 51→60¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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