# Will Barrett Pfeiffer win Big Brother Season 28

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 5% across 16 contracts — refreshed 32 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/bigbrother
Updated: 2026-07-13T00:20:52.003Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-07

## Headline

- Probability: 5% (liquidity-weighted across 16 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (16 contracts)
- 24h volume: $32K

## Bound contracts (16)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rick Devens | 4¢ | −2pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-rick-devens-win-big-brother-season-28-rick-de-kalshi-kxbigbrother-26dec31-ric |
| Drew Campbell | 8¢ | −3pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-drew-campbell-win-big-brother-season-28-drew-kalshi-kxbigbrother-26dec31-dre |
| Mallory Aurichio | 4¢ | ±0 | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-mallory-aurichio-win-big-brother-season-28-ma-kalshi-kxbigbrother-26dec31-mal |
| Lyric Medeiros | 5¢ | +1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-lyric-medeiros-win-big-brother-season-28-lyri-kalshi-kxbigbrother-26dec31-lyr |
| Jason De Puy | 5¢ | +2pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-jason-de-puy-win-big-brother-season-28-jason-kalshi-kxbigbrother-26dec31-jas |
| Barrett Pfeiffer | 10¢ | −2pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-barrett-pfeiffer-win-big-brother-season-28-ba-kalshi-kxbigbrother-26dec31-bar |
| LaTrice Verrett | 5¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-latrice-verrett-win-big-brother-season-28-lat-kalshi-kxbigbrother-26dec31-lat |
| Yash Patel | 4¢ | −3pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-yash-patel-win-big-brother-season-28-yash-pat-kalshi-kxbigbrother-26dec31-yas |
| Kamu Kirk | 6¢ | −1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-kamu-kirk-win-big-brother-season-28-kamu-kirk-kalshi-kxbigbrother-26dec31-kam |
| Rome Seymour | 5¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-rome-seymour-win-big-brother-season-28-rome-s-kalshi-kxbigbrother-26dec31-rom |
| Melody Morris | 6¢ | +4pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-melody-morris-win-big-brother-season-28-melod-kalshi-kxbigbrother-26dec31-mel |
| Chuk Anyanwu | 7¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-chuk-anyanwu-win-big-brother-season-28-chuk-a-kalshi-kxbigbrother-26dec31-chu |
| Angela Murray | 5¢ | −1pp | $726 | kalshi | /markets/will-angela-murray-win-big-brother-season-28-angel-kalshi-kxbigbrother-26dec31-ang |
| Taylor Brown | 3¢ | −2pp | $702 | kalshi | /markets/will-taylor-brown-win-big-brother-season-28-taylor-kalshi-kxbigbrother-26dec31-tay |
| Haley Thogmartin | 3¢ | −3pp | $614 | kalshi | /markets/will-haley-thogmartin-win-big-brother-season-28-ha-kalshi-kxbigbrother-26dec31-hal |
| Ashley Trail | 6¢ | −4pp | $488 | kalshi | /markets/will-ashley-trail-win-big-brother-season-28-ashley-kalshi-kxbigbrother-26dec31-ash |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | 7 |
| 2026-07-08 | 8 |
| 2026-07-09 | 7 |
| 2026-07-10 | 6 |
| 2026-07-11 | 5 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-10 · Rick Devens −8pp 14→6¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-08 · Rome Seymour −8pp 14→6¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-08 · Barrett Pfeiffer +5pp 8→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-08 · Melody Morris +4pp 3→7¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-09 · Ashley Trail −4pp 10→6¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract reflects a 7% probability that Barrett Pfeiffer will win Big Brother Season 28, based on aggregated trading data from prediction markets. At this odds level, Pfeiffer is positioned as a mid-tier contender rather than a frontrunner or long shot. The probability likely reflects his performance in early game phases, social positioning, and competition strength relative to other houseguests. Key factors driving this valuation include his demonstrated physical or strategic gameplay, jury management approach, and how he compares to higher-probability contestants like Ashley Trail (7%) and Lyric Medeiros (8%). Movement in this probability would depend on his survival in upcoming evictions, relationship dynamics with other houseguests, and shifts in fan or betting sentiment as the season progresses. The resolution of this market will depend on the finale timing and final houseguest standing.

### Key factors

- Pfeiffer's competition performance and win-loss record in physical and mental challenges will directly impact eviction survival odds
- His current position in house alliances and social relationships determine whether he remains a voting target or gains jury respect
- Trading volume of $335 in 24 hours for his contract suggests moderate but not overwhelming market interest compared to top contenders
- The 1-2 cent spread between his price (9¢) and similar contenders (Patel at 6¢, Brown at 6¢) indicates marginal differentiation in expected probability
- Upcoming eviction episodes and jury composition changes will create focal points where market probability adjusts based on new information

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/bigbrother
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=bigbrother

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.