# Will DANDELION be #2 on the Billboard 200 during the week of May 9, 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 5% across 2 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/billboardrunnerupalbum
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:41.808Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-11

## Headline

- Probability: 5% (liquidity-weighted across 2 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $263

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DANDELION | 4¢ | −37pp | $263 | kalshi | /markets/will-dandelion-be-2-on-the-billboard-200-during-th-kalshi-kxbillboardrunnerupalbum-26may16-dan |
| I'm The Problem | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-im-the-problem-be-2-on-the-billboard-200-duri-kalshi-kxbillboardrunnerupalbum-26may16-imt |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 11 |
| 2026-05-06 | 68 |
| 2026-05-07 | 54 |
| 2026-05-08 | 43 |
| 2026-05-09 | 6 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · DANDELION +57pp 11→68¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-09 · DANDELION −37pp 43→6¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · DANDELION −14pp 68→54¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · DANDELION −11pp 54→43¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract asks whether the song DANDELION will rank as the #2 album on the Billboard 200 chart for the week ending May 9, 2026. The 25% probability reflects moderate uncertainty about chart positioning one week away. Chart rankings depend primarily on weekly sales and streaming volume during the tracking period, with the final numbers released by Billboard on May 6. The main driver of current positioning is early-week sales momentum and playlist adoption; the contract resolves when Billboard publishes official chart data for that week. Competition from other new or incumbent releases significantly affects whether this track reaches the #2 spot versus finishing higher or lower on the chart.

### Key factors

- Billboard's official chart release on May 6, 2026 will provide definitive ranking data for the May 9 tracking week
- Current sales and streaming velocity in the first few days of the tracking week relative to competing releases
- Related Kalshi contract shows 'Dandelion by Ella Langley' at 19¢ for spending 4+ weeks at #1 in 2026, suggesting some confidence in the track's longevity
- Track performance depends on combined streaming volume and physical/digital sales during the May 2-8 tracking period
- Multiple competing contracts on the OCTANE positioning suggest fragmented market expectations and potential cannibalization effects

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/billboardrunnerupalbum
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=billboardrunnerupalbum

## License

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