# Will drop dead be #2 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of May 9, 2026: drop dead

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 45% across 2 contracts — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/billboardrunnerupsong
Updated: 2026-06-26T07:20:48.712Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-29

## Headline

- Probability: 45% (liquidity-weighted across 2 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $245

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Choosin' Texas | 3¢ | +5pp | $180 | kalshi | /markets/will-choosin-texas-be-2-on-the-billboard-hot-100-d-kalshi-kxbillboardrunnerupsong-26jul04-cho |
| I Knew It, I Knew You | 86¢ | +8pp | $65 | kalshi | /markets/will-i-knew-it-i-knew-you-be-2-on-the-billboard-ho-kalshi-kxbillboardrunnerupsong-26jul04-ikn |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | 15 |
| 2026-06-19 | 39 |
| 2026-06-26 | 46 |

_10 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-25 · I Knew It, I Knew You +49pp 27→76¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Choosin' Texas −39pp 41→2¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Choosin' Texas −35pp 76→41¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Choosin' Texas +20pp 35→55¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · Choosin' Texas +14pp 55→69¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market asks whether 'drop dead' will rank as the #2 song on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week of May 9, 2026. The 15% probability reflects relatively low odds, suggesting traders believe the song is unlikely to reach that specific chart position. The current probability is influenced by the song's existing chart momentum—'drop dead' already ranked as the runner-up song on May 2, 2026 (trading at 91¢), indicating it has achieved strong performance. Whether it maintains or improves that position depends on competing releases, radio play, and streaming activity over the next week. The key resolution event is the official Billboard Hot 100 release for the chart week ending May 9, 2026, which typically publishes on Tuesday. Traders are essentially betting whether 'drop dead' will hold or improve its near-top position or whether another song will overtake it for the #2 slot.

### Key factors

- 'drop dead' ranked #2 on the May 2, 2026 chart (91¢ contract suggests high confidence in this outcome)
- The song must maintain or improve position against competing releases and streaming trends in the subsequent week
- Top competing song positions remain uncertain—Elizabeth Taylor at 1¢ and other unnamed songs at low probabilities suggest no dominant replacement is priced in
- Billboard Hot 100 calculations factor streaming, radio airplay, and digital sales weighted differently, introducing measurement variability
- Official chart release for May 9 week occurs Tuesday of that week, providing definitive resolution with no appeal or revision

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/billboardrunnerupsong
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=billboardrunnerupsong

## License

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