# Will legislation that authorizes siting the Women’s History Museum within the National Mall Reserve become law before Jan 1, 2027

> Housing for the 21st Century Act leads at 76%, runner-up 61% across 20 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 22 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/bills
Updated: 2026-06-08T04:20:08.935Z
Category: legislation
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Housing for the 21st Century Act at 76%
- Runner-up: Railway safety bill at 61%
- Outcomes: 20 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $425

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Housing for the 21st Century Act | 76¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-would-revise-federal-housing-kalshi-kxbills-hous |
| Railway safety bill | 61¢ | −4pp | $100 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-imposes-enhanced-federal-saf-kalshi-kxbills-26may-rail |
| Hot Rotisserie Chicken Act | 60¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-amends-the-food-and-nutritio-kalshi-kxbills-hrca |
| DEFIANCE Act | 46¢ | −1pp | $93 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-creates-a-federal-civil-laws-kalshi-kxbills-defy |
| ROTOR Act | 38¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-mandates-expanded-adoption-o-kalshi-kxbills-rotor |
| Critical-minerals stockpile | 34¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-establishes-a-federal-critic-kalshi-kxbills-min |
| Export-control chip security | 27¢ | −2pp | $49 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-requires-location-verificati-kalshi-kxbills-chip |
| FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years) | 27¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-reauthorizes-fisa-title-vii-kalshi-kxbills-fisa |
| Film/TV production expensing | 20¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-extends-section-181-expensin-kalshi-kxbills-tv |
| SELF DRIVE Act | 20¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-preempts-state-and-local-aut-kalshi-kxbills-drive |
| AI-chip export licensing | 19¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-subjects-covered-ai-chip-exp-kalshi-kxbills-aio |
| SHOWER Act | 18¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-redefines-showerhead-for-doe-kalshi-kxbills-show |
| E15 year-round sales | 15¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-allows-year-round-nationwide-kalshi-kxbills-e15 |
| Data center utility cost protection | 14¢ | −2pp | $17 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-prohibits-data-center-power-kalshi-kxbills-data |
| Credit-card routing competition | 10¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-requires-two-unaffiliated-ne-kalshi-kxbills-ccr |
| Trump Airport | 10¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-renames-washington-dulles-in-kalshi-kxbills-airp |
| $2.50 Coin | 9¢ | +1pp | $137 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-would-require-treasury-to-mi-kalshi-kxbills-250c |
| Smithsonian Women’s History Museum | 7¢ | −13pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-authorizes-siting-the-womens-kalshi-kxbills-smith |
| White House ballroom funding | 6¢ | −3pp | $29 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-authorizes-funding-for-const-kalshi-kxbills-ball |
| Trump's Birthday as a federal holiday | 5¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-designates-june-14-the-birth-kalshi-kxbills-djtb |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Housing for the 21st Century Act | Railway safety bill | Hot Rotisserie Chicken Act |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | — | — | 58 |
| 2026-05-11 | 81 | — | — |
| 2026-05-21 | — | 38 | — |
| 2026-05-25 | 86 | 66 | — |
| 2026-05-26 | 86 | — | 62 |
| 2026-05-31 | 85 | 64 | — |
| 2026-06-01 | 79 | — | — |
| 2026-06-02 | 80 | 65 | 60 |
| 2026-06-08 | 76 | 61 | — |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-01 · FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years) −10pp 31→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-04 · DEFIANCE Act −6pp 53→47¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-01 · Housing for the 21st Century Act −6pp 85→79¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-02 · FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years) +5pp 21→26¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-08 · Railway safety bill −4pp 65→61¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This measures the likelihood that Congress will pass and the President will sign legislation authorizing the Women's History Museum on the National Mall before year-end 2026. The 36% probability reflects modest but uncertain support. The main drivers are whether Democratic and Republican leadership prioritize this cultural initiative amid competing legislative agendas, and whether the proposal maintains broad enough support to advance through committee and floor votes in both chambers. The critical catalyst is House and Senate activity during the remainder of 2026; any bill that clears committee and reaches a chamber floor substantially increases passage odds. Summer and fall floor schedules will largely determine whether this competes successfully against higher-priority legislation for floor time. Budget constraints and competing priorities for National Mall real estate could further limit momentum.

### Key factors

- No signed agreement exists yet between relevant committees and leadership as of late April 2026, reducing likelihood of rapid passage
- The 17-percentage-point gap between Kalshi (37%) and Polymarket (20%) suggests meaningful uncertainty about bill advancement or legislative appetite
- Congressional floor time allocation in 2026 remains contested; cultural projects typically rank below fiscal, security, and partisan priority legislation
- National Mall space availability and feasibility studies would need to show viability; delays in site planning reduce passage probability
- A bill would need to clear both House and Senate and secure presidential signature within approximately 8 months, a tight timeline for non-essential legislation

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/bills
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=bills

## License

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