# Will 6 to 6 bills become law in Apr 2026

> Closed. Last odds frozen 6 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/billscount
Updated: 2026-06-01T13:20:12.686Z
Category: legislation
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-06-01

## Headline

- Probability: 97% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $536

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 97¢ | +3pp | $536 | kalshi | /markets/will-exactly-8-bills-become-law-in-may-2026-8-kalshi-kxbillscount-26may-8 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-19 | 13 |
| 2026-05-25 | 33 |
| 2026-05-31 | 96 |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This prediction estimates the likelihood that exactly six bills will become law during April 2026. The 46% probability reflects substantial uncertainty about legislative output in the final days of the month, with markets pricing in declining probability as April winds down. The primary driver is the DHS funding bill, which contracts show strong odds of passing before July (95¢) but significantly lower odds before May 1 (23¢), suggesting most April legislative activity hinges on whether this bill moves quickly. The cross-venue gap of 11 percentage points indicates traders on Polymarket see higher odds than Kalshi participants, possibly reflecting different assessments of congressional momentum or procedural timing. The critical catalyst is May 1, which marks the formal end of April—any major bills signed on April 30 or earlier directly impact this outcome. Very low contract prices on the 5-to-5 scenario (3¢) suggest markets believe hitting exactly six bills is more likely than five.

### Key factors

- DHS funding bill passage timing: The 72-point gap between May 1 (23¢) and June 1 (86¢) probabilities indicates whether this major bill passes in April or rolls into May significantly determines the six-bill outcome
- Congressional calendar compression: Only 30 days remain in April as of today, limiting legislative opportunities; the density of scheduled votes and floor time will directly constrain maximum possible bill passages
- Current legislative pipeline: The presence of exactly six bills at an advanced stage ready for passage versus fewer or more would make the six-bill target either highly likely or improbable
- Cross-venue disagreement: Polymarket's 49% average versus Kalshi's 38% suggests different trader bases disagree on near-term congressional productivity by 11 percentage points
- Contract volume concentration: The DHS May 1 contract dominates volume ($219,760 24h), indicating this single bill's passage timing is the primary uncertainty driving the broader six-bill probability

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/billscount
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=billscount

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.