# Will Bitcoin hit $100,000?

> Closed. Final outcome: $76,500 or above. Last odds frozen 21 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/bitcoin-100k
Updated: 2026-06-07T06:40:59.836Z
Category: crypto · Topic: bitcoin
Status: resolved
Closes: 2026-05-08

## Headline

- Leader: — at 97%
- Runner-up: Will the gold close price be above 4080.99 USD/t.oz on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? at 97%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (15 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K
- Resolved: $76,500 or above

## Bound contracts (15)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the gold close price be above 4060.99 USD/t.oz on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? | 91¢ | +1pp | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-gold-close-price-be-above-406099-usdtoz-o-kalshi-kxgoldw-26jun1217-t4060.99 |
| Will the gold close price be above 4080.99 USD/t.oz on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? | 91¢ | +1pp | $100 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-gold-close-price-be-above-408099-usdtoz-o-kalshi-kxgoldw-26jun1217-t4080.99 |
| Will the gold close price be above 4100.99 USD/t.oz on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? | 90¢ | +2pp | $234 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-gold-close-price-be-above-410099-usdtoz-o-kalshi-kxgoldw-26jun1217-t4100.99 |
| Will the gold close price be above 4120.99 USD/t.oz on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? | 88¢ | +2pp | $372 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-gold-close-price-be-above-412099-usdtoz-o-kalshi-kxgoldw-26jun1217-t4120.99 |
| Will the gold close price be above 4140.99 USD/t.oz on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? | 86¢ | +2pp | $173 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-gold-close-price-be-above-414099-usdtoz-o-kalshi-kxgoldw-26jun1217-t4140.99 |
| Will the gold close price be above 4160.99 USD/t.oz on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? | 82¢ | +2pp | $43 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-gold-close-price-be-above-416099-usdtoz-o-kalshi-kxgoldw-26jun1217-t4160.99 |
| Will the gold close price be above 4180.99 USD/t.oz on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? | 75¢ | +2pp | $4 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-gold-close-price-be-above-418099-usdtoz-o-kalshi-kxgoldw-26jun1217-t4180.99 |
| Will the gold close price be above 4300.99 USD/t.oz on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? | 52¢ | +1pp | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-gold-close-price-be-above-430099-usdtoz-o-kalshi-kxgoldw-26jun1217-t4300.99 |
| Will the gold close price be above 4320.99 USD/t.oz on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? | 48¢ | ±0 | $134 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-gold-close-price-be-above-432099-usdtoz-o-kalshi-kxgoldw-26jun1217-t4320.99 |
| Will the gold close price be above 4420.99 USD/t.oz on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? | 30¢ | +1pp | $636 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-gold-close-price-be-above-442099-usdtoz-o-kalshi-kxgoldw-26jun1217-t4420.99 |
| Will the gold close price be above 4500.99 USD/t.oz on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? | 17¢ | −5pp | $29 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-gold-close-price-be-above-450099-usdtoz-o-kalshi-kxgoldw-26jun1217-t4500.99 |
| Will the gold close price be above 4560.99 USD/t.oz on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? | 10¢ | −2pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-gold-close-price-be-above-456099-usdtoz-o-kalshi-kxgoldw-26jun1217-t4560.99 |
| Will the gold close price be above 4600.99 USD/t.oz on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? | 7¢ | −2pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-gold-close-price-be-above-460099-usdtoz-o-kalshi-kxgoldw-26jun1217-t4600.99 |
| Will the gold close price be above 4580.99 USD/t.oz on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? | 6¢ | ±0 | $8 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-gold-close-price-be-above-458099-usdtoz-o-kalshi-kxgoldw-26jun1217-t4580.99 |
| Will the gold close price be above 4620.99 USD/t.oz on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? | 6¢ | −1pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-gold-close-price-be-above-462099-usdtoz-o-kalshi-kxgoldw-26jun1217-t4620.99 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Will the gold close price be above 4060.99 USD/t.oz on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? | Will the gold close price be above 4080.99 USD/t.oz on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? | Will the gold close price be above 4100.99 USD/t.oz on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | 92 | 90 | 88 |
| 2026-06-06 | 92 | 90 | 88 |
| 2026-06-07 | 93 | 91 | 90 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-07 · Will the gold close price be above 4500.99 USD/t.oz on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? −5pp 12→7¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-06 · Will the gold close price be above 4180.99 USD/t.oz on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? +3pp 73→76¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-06 · Will the gold close price be above 4300.99 USD/t.oz on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? −3pp 53→50¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-06 · Will the gold close price be above 4420.99 USD/t.oz on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT? −3pp 27→24¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=bitcoin-100k
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/bitcoin

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