# Will Bitcoin hit $200,000?

> Closed. Last odds frozen 21 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/bitcoin-200k
Updated: 2026-06-07T06:40:59.842Z
Category: crypto · Topic: bitcoin
Status: historical
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 44% (liquidity-weighted across 30 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 70% / Polymarket 18% — 52pp spread
- 24h volume: $8.7M

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ 250,000 | 2¢ | ±0 | $5.1M | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-250000-polymarket-0x6fefc0438c7598b23531457c8c60541990d0786bd4bd9dfc3eabc8d95c291092 |
| ↑ 200,000 | 2¢ | −1pp | $1.8M | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-200000-polymarket-0xac32e73aa9e0dae801d88d4f81efd2ef3fa0f04b815f3a0e74426f0762e668cd |
| ↑ 190,000 | 2¢ | −1pp | $591K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-190000-polymarket-0xe71b9d788ce662d967ff2c90749ff8b26cee290455ef6cb84f33d1393ffae115 |
| ↑ 180,000 | 2¢ | ±0 | $424K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-180000-polymarket-0x799c35de1e5f3ebd75053643e020e6df9e9a3f477e3d6066eb0a8565f65d547f |
| ↑ 170,000 | 3¢ | ±0 | $317K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-170000-polymarket-0x9affeb38bce1e9a6de30e9ecada1ecfaf636574d3961cf3b9177299786214234 |
| Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026? | 65¢ | +6pp | $84K | kalshi | /markets/bitcoin-price-on-jun-12-2026-kalshi-kxbtcd-26jun1217-t60999.99 |
| Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026? | 59¢ | +6pp | $63K | kalshi | /markets/bitcoin-price-on-jun-12-2026-kalshi-kxbtcd-26jun1217-t61499.99 |
| Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026? | 92¢ | +3pp | $53K | kalshi | /markets/bitcoin-price-on-jun-12-2026-kalshi-kxbtcd-26jun1217-t54499.99 |
| Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026? | 68¢ | +8pp | $43K | kalshi | /markets/bitcoin-price-on-jun-12-2026-kalshi-kxbtcd-26jun1217-t60499.99 |
| Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026? | 49¢ | +7pp | $43K | kalshi | /markets/bitcoin-price-on-jun-12-2026-kalshi-kxbtcd-26jun1217-t61999.99 |
| Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026? | 87¢ | +5pp | $41K | kalshi | /markets/bitcoin-price-on-jun-12-2026-kalshi-kxbtcd-26jun1217-t54999.99 |
| Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026? | 83¢ | +2pp | $37K | kalshi | /markets/bitcoin-price-on-jun-12-2026-kalshi-kxbtcd-26jun1217-t56499.99 |
| Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026? | 47¢ | +7pp | $34K | kalshi | /markets/bitcoin-price-on-jun-12-2026-kalshi-kxbtcd-26jun1217-t62499.99 |
| Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026? | 71¢ | +7pp | $28K | kalshi | /markets/bitcoin-price-on-jun-12-2026-kalshi-kxbtcd-26jun1217-t59999.99 |
| Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026? | 93¢ | +4pp | $23K | kalshi | /markets/bitcoin-price-on-jun-12-2026-kalshi-kxbtcd-26jun1217-t55999.99 |
| Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026? | 72¢ | +5pp | $21K | kalshi | /markets/bitcoin-price-on-jun-12-2026-kalshi-kxbtcd-26jun1217-t58999.99 |
| Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026? | 87¢ | +6pp | $15K | kalshi | /markets/bitcoin-price-on-jun-12-2026-kalshi-kxbtcd-26jun1217-t55499.99 |
| Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026? | 93¢ | +5pp | $15K | kalshi | /markets/bitcoin-price-on-jun-12-2026-kalshi-kxbtcd-26jun1217-t53999.99 |
| Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026? | 74¢ | +6pp | $14K | kalshi | /markets/bitcoin-price-on-jun-12-2026-kalshi-kxbtcd-26jun1217-t59499.99 |
| Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026? | 12¢ | +1pp | $11K | kalshi | /markets/bitcoin-price-on-jun-12-2026-kalshi-kxbtcd-26jun1217-t66499.99 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 6 |
| 2026-05-25 | 6 |
| 2026-06-01 | 3 |
| 2026-06-07 | 66 |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-06 · Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026? +12pp 73→85¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-06 · Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026? +12pp 71→83¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-06 · Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026? +11pp 73→84¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-06 · Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026? +11pp 71→82¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-06 · Bitcoin price on Jun 12, 2026? +9pp 72→81¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/bitcoin-200k
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=bitcoin-200k
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/bitcoin

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.