# Bitcoin all time high by ___

> Closed. Last odds frozen 9 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/bitcoin-all-time-high
Updated: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z
Category: crypto · Topic: bitcoin
Status: historical
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: December 31, 2026 at 7%
- Runner-up: September 30, 2026 at 3%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 7¢ | ±0 | $2K | polymarket | /markets/bitcoin-all-time-high-by-december-31-2026-polymarket-0x18076e7d0f58a52d3d4f311d0456306edf16d1873cf5eef27d3ff044153e9576 |
| September 30, 2026 | 3¢ | −1pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/bitcoin-all-time-high-by-september-30-2026-polymarket-0x6123b5cc75c38ba9783f6c8ea260107b546c7d3454a8f9b5280c9921cc39f3d9 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | December 31, 2026 | September 30, 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | 15 | 7 |
| 2026-06-04 | 11 | 3 |
| 2026-06-05 | 10 | — |
| 2026-06-12 | 8 | — |
| 2026-06-17 | 7 | — |

_16 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high by the end of 2026. The 21% aggregate probability suggests traders see it as unlikely but plausible within the next eight months. Bitcoin's current price relative to its previous peak of approximately $69,000 (reached in November 2024) is the primary driver—the asset would need substantial appreciation to set a new record. Market sentiment is split: Kalshi traders price the odds at 32%, while Polymarket traders are more skeptical at 18%, indicating genuine disagreement about near-term momentum. Key factors include macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and institutional adoption trends. The June 30, 2026 contract is the most actively traded, suggesting that timeframe is where market uncertainty concentrates. Bitcoin's performance over the next two quarters will largely determine whether this outcome occurs.

### Key factors

- Bitcoin's price must appreciate approximately 20-30% from current levels to surpass the November 2024 all-time high of ~$69,000
- Kalshi traders assign 32% probability versus Polymarket's 18%, indicating material disagreement that may reflect different trader bases or information sets
- June 30, 2026 contract trades at 3¢ with $8,412 daily volume, the most liquid Bitcoin ATH contract, concentrating uncertainty in the next 10 weeks
- Bitcoin has experienced multiple cycles of boom-bust volatility; sustained upward pressure typically requires either macro tailwinds or major adoption catalysts
- The September 30 contract trades at only 11¢, suggesting declining conviction as the year progresses, indicating markets price lower odds for longer-dated milestones

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/bitcoin-all-time-high
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=bitcoin-all-time-high
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/bitcoin

## License

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