# How many Senators vote to confirm as Attorney General

> Above 49 leads at 74%, runner-up 54% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 52 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/blanchecount
Updated: 2026-06-19T13:20:18.989Z
Category: politics · Topic: ukraine
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Above 49 at 74%
- Runner-up: Above 50 at 54%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 49 | 74¢ | +3pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/how-many-senators-vote-to-confirm-as-attorney-gene-kalshi-kxblanchecount-27-t49 |
| Above 50 | 54¢ | ±0 | $26 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-senators-vote-to-confirm-as-attorney-gene-kalshi-kxblanchecount-27-t50 |
| Above 51 | 21¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-senators-vote-to-confirm-as-attorney-gene-kalshi-kxblanchecount-27-t51 |
| Above 52 | 11¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-senators-vote-to-confirm-as-attorney-gene-kalshi-kxblanchecount-27-t52 |
| Above 53 | 7¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-senators-vote-to-confirm-as-attorney-gene-kalshi-kxblanchecount-27-t53 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 49 | Above 50 | Above 51 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-04 | 37 | 29 | 15 |
| 2026-06-05 | 31 | 25 | 24 |
| 2026-06-11 | 45 | — | — |
| 2026-06-13 | 38 | 25 | 13 |
| 2026-06-17 | 71 | 50 | 21 |
| 2026-06-18 | 74 | 54 | — |
| 2026-06-19 | — | 54 | — |

_15 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-16 · Above 49 +21pp 40→61¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-16 · Above 50 +15pp 30→45¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-17 · Above 49 +10pp 61→71¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-13 · Above 51 −8pp 21→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-13 · Above 49 −7pp 45→38¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market assessments of whether an Attorney General nominee will secure confirmation from at least 50 of 100 Senators. The 21% likelihood suggests markets currently view confirmation above this threshold as unlikely but plausible. The price varies slightly across vote thresholds—confirmation above 49 votes trades near the headline while higher thresholds (51-53 votes) trade lower, indicating tighter margins are seen as less probable. Key drivers include the current Senate composition, party affiliation of the nominee, committee hearing outcomes, and any emerging controversies. Confirmation votes typically occur weeks after nomination announcement and committee review, serving as the primary event that resolves this market. The gap between the lower thresholds (49-50 votes at 29¢) and higher ones (53 votes at 7¢) suggests markets anticipate either clear approval or denial rather than narrow passage.

### Key factors

- Current Senate composition and party distribution, which determines baseline confirmation math
- Public statements and voting history of swing-vote Senators on nominee's record and qualifications
- Committee hearing testimony and any disclosed information that could shift Senator positions during deliberation
- Historical confirmation rates for Attorney General nominees under similar political conditions
- Timing of the confirmation vote relative to other legislative priorities that might affect attendance and engagement

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/blanchecount
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=blanchecount
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ukraine

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.