# Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Senate Judiciary Committee reports Todd Blanche's nomination to be U.S. Attorney General to the full Senate before Aug 1, 2026

> Before Jan 1, 2027 leads at 80%, runner-up 78% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 53 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/blanchejudiciary-27
Updated: 2026-06-27T02:20:50.116Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027 at 80%
- Runner-up: Before Oct 1, 2026 at 78%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $14

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 80¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-it-be-reported-by-any-of-the-source-agencies-kalshi-kxblanchejudiciary-27-27jan01 |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 78¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-it-be-reported-by-any-of-the-source-agencies-kalshi-kxblanchejudiciary-27-26oct01 |
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | 74¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-it-be-reported-by-any-of-the-source-agencies-kalshi-kxblanchejudiciary-27-26sep01 |
| Before Aug 1, 2026 | 65¢ | −2pp | $14 | kalshi | /markets/will-it-be-reported-by-any-of-the-source-agencies-kalshi-kxblanchejudiciary-27-26aug01 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Jan 1, 2027 | Before Oct 1, 2026 | Before Sep 1, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-09 | 57 | 51 | 46 |
| 2026-06-13 | — | — | 46 |
| 2026-06-14 | — | 54 | — |
| 2026-06-15 | 59 | 56 | 50 |
| 2026-06-20 | — | — | 71 |
| 2026-06-21 | 79 | 78 | 71 |
| 2026-06-26 | 80 | 78 | 74 |

_16 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-23 · Before Sep 1, 2026 −21pp 71→50¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Before Sep 1, 2026 +16pp 58→74¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Before Jan 1, 2027 +14pp 62→76¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Before Jan 1, 2027 −10pp 78→68¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Before Sep 1, 2026 +8pp 50→58¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that the Senate Judiciary Committee will vote to report Todd Blanche's nomination for U.S. Attorney General to the full Senate before August 1, 2026. At 21% for the August deadline, markets price in significant uncertainty about timeline. The contract structure shows traders expect the committee process to extend beyond summer—the January 2027 outcome sits at 57%, suggesting most probability mass falls in fall 2026. Key drivers include the current pace of committee scheduling, typical confirmation timelines for attorney general nominees, and any procedural delays. The next concrete milestone would be the actual committee markup session date, which would either accelerate or defer the reporting timeline. Political dynamics and competing legislative priorities could also shift urgency.

### Key factors

- Committee markup date has not been publicly announced as of mid-June 2026, creating substantial timeline uncertainty
- Historical attorney general confirmations typically require 2-4 months from committee vote to full Senate vote, suggesting fall 2026 is the baseline scenario
- The 26-point probability gap between the August deadline (21%) and September deadline (47%) indicates markets expect mid-to-late August committee action at earliest
- Competing Senate priorities and recess schedules in summer months would mechanically delay markup beyond the August 1 cutoff
- Market pricing concentrates around January 2027 (57%) rather than near-term dates, suggesting expectations of extended process with possible delays

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/blanchejudiciary-27
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=blanchejudiciary-27
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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