# BLAST Rivals Fort Worth 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 7% across 1 contract — refreshed 10 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/blast-rivals-fort-worth
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:50:28.266Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-01

## Headline

- Probability: 7% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $7

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fort Trump | 7¢ | +2pp | $7 | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-say-fort-trump-before-jul-1-2026-fort-t-kalshi-kxtrumpsaytrump-26jul01-fort |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-13 | 6 |
| 2026-04-26 | 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | 3 |
| 2026-05-08 | 10 |

_15 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Fort Trump +4pp 3→7¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the chance that the BLAST Rivals Season 1 tournament occurs in Fort Worth, Texas in 2026. The market is pricing in meaningful uncertainty despite tournament organizers' stated intentions, with a 12-percentage-point gap between venues suggesting disagreement about venue confirmation risk. The primary drivers are venue logistics (cost, facility availability, scheduling conflicts with other esports events) and organizational capacity—BLAST must finalize contracts, secure licensing, and coordinate team travel. The main catalyst is the official tournament announcement and venue confirmation, typically occurring 2-4 months before the scheduled event. Current probability reflects that some scouts view Fort Worth as uncertain given typical esports venue changes and the time remaining for complications to emerge.

### Key factors

- Vitality is priced at 81¢ to win if the event occurs in Fort Worth, suggesting high confidence in their participation and performance conditional on venue confirmation
- The 12-point gap between Polymarket (33%) and Kalshi (21%) indicates disagreement on how to weight venue confirmation risk versus other uncertainties
- G2 is priced at only 7¢ on Polymarket to win Fort Worth, despite being at 38¢ on Kalshi for the broader season, suggesting market doubt about their Fort Worth participation specifically
- Trading volume on winner contracts ($8,673–$1,315 per day) shows sufficient liquidity to reveal genuine price discovery rather than illiquidity-driven extremes
- No publicly announced Fort Worth venue lock-in date or contract filing suggests the event remains contingent on unresolved logistics as of May 2026

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/blast-rivals-fort-worth
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=blast-rivals-fort-worth

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.