# Blaublitz Akita vs. Montedio Yamagata - More Markets

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 40% across 20 contracts — refreshed 4 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/blaublitz-akita-vs-montedio-yamagata-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-03T14:05:28.029Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Probability: 40% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 2.5 | 52¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0xc26872899f3bb280f768daa4b24340eefcd3e924616c27e97fe754db78535101 |
| Thespa Gunma (-2.5) | 34¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-more-markets-the-polymarket-0xf0472b72ea8a9953d1d21b5fe997a73300e0f2f19e02ae3d86bc2222f77099af |
| O/U 2.5 | 50¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/blaublitz-akita-vs-sc-sagamihara-more-markets-ou-2-polymarket-0x7b0fa0fed6046af1cd31089b3f6a20f14d4e415d346160c255ad8ac62f5c94f0 |
| O/U 3.5 | 24¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/blaublitz-akita-vs-sc-sagamihara-more-markets-ou-3-polymarket-0xf4a1b83d93e41760e80430129634e4efc1d5663f05b6db9e89da2e5c09d11c5d |
| O/U 4.5 | 28¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/blaublitz-akita-vs-sc-sagamihara-more-markets-ou-4-polymarket-0x72dcd3013b00b31b136a6b4f32dc5561863c8dc970e13bfcfd8dae4b04589505 |
| O/U 1.5 | 66¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/blaublitz-akita-vs-sc-sagamihara-more-markets-ou-1-polymarket-0xb586da709b1950c194457c6e8207886d244713d80e031c2773099d08803a85d1 |
| Montedio Yamagata (-2.5) | 32¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-more-markets-mon-polymarket-0xa5b295be7e5127fbd46480c52cab4823e0862b64aa3a6b6e40f1858913e0370e |
| Both Teams to Score | 51¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/blaublitz-akita-vs-sc-sagamihara-more-markets-both-polymarket-0x78f9416cbce73989782cdeba5e15b4b99da3105e7a0c662592a6363e2472ce45 |
| Both Teams to Score | 51¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-more-markets-bot-polymarket-0xd6d00ce85db87360ad28c70342a8f2b87d703ebe7a319dca09821a11ab48a2e5 |
| O/U 3.5 | 36¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0x68f5fbb3a2afbfa74b1d32d31d8d64b137044de765a06e409ffdb537d23fba0a |
| SC Sagamihara (-2.5) | 34¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/blaublitz-akita-vs-sc-sagamihara-more-markets-sc-s-polymarket-0xa862ed33dbb3fc2893b2b841c9e70c58e1d38381e686961cd5bcb5d40b3c0185 |
| Blaublitz Akita (-2.5) | 32¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/blaublitz-akita-vs-sc-sagamihara-more-markets-blau-polymarket-0xc9e19c58713ed897cf70e1c1e516748769e94b5a00c8c1627022447359660bb4 |
| O/U 4.5 | 28¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0xf9c84381843b80450cbda142e07bc4b95e02a0a142b2a6e5c5bf3803d9f48a5a |
| Montedio Yamagata (-1.5) | 28¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-more-markets-mon-polymarket-0xc6b29b6ccedb7686c8fccf7d6a8d85ec1e79beae7acd56da8e816a761267917b |
| O/U 1.5 | 65¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0xda0ea1b669fd6281e67c2f7debf289881de763bfb3598afef4fb3494f629f5e3 |
| Blaublitz Akita (-1.5) | 32¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/blaublitz-akita-vs-sc-sagamihara-more-markets-blau-polymarket-0x0a2d110c393d985f5c6380dc54d8de37420def2f144449934297242e2b70a06a |
| SC Sagamihara (-1.5) | 32¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/blaublitz-akita-vs-sc-sagamihara-more-markets-sc-s-polymarket-0xb700dd946bf3b507b6f856fe76f875b830236e074b3f20e2667f2e8fc8b81d5e |
| Thespa Gunma (-1.5) | 33¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-more-markets-the-polymarket-0xa980d10a592f891e94f3c9e054856ca18d8b4366d3ef3083af9f2cf89e0029b1 |
| Montedio Yamagata | 49¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/montedio-yamagata-vs-thespa-gunma-montedio-yamagat-polymarket-0x16f4ac10b455aeed267b92b4a5a582c3801266d163f2efd32fe4cdb25f8432bb |
| SC Sagamihara | 36¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/blaublitz-akita-vs-sc-sagamihara-sc-sagamihara-polymarket-0x091c2cc576e2e8481bf3d09f9ff88aa6831cc324b53c9cd4c9059f27eeb56a2b |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 40 |
| 2026-05-03 | 42 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Thespa Gunma (-1.5) +4pp 33→37¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Montedio Yamagata (-2.5) +3pp 33→36¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Montedio Yamagata +3pp 44→47¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 41% probability reflects the chance that Blaublitz Akita will defeat Montedio Yamagata in an upcoming J2 League matchup. The prediction is moderately calibrated based on recent form and head-to-head records between these Japanese second-division clubs. Several factors influence the current level: Blaublitz Akita's recent performance trajectory and home-field advantage in Akita, weighed against Montedio Yamagata's consistency and attacking capability. The match outcome will be determined by actual play on the scheduled date. Key variables include team injury status, recent goal-scoring records, and historical performance in similar conditions. The probability could shift significantly if either team experiences personnel changes or publicly available performance data emerges closer to fixture day.

### Key factors

- Blaublitz Akita's recent form in home matches versus overall league performance this season
- Montedio Yamagata's defensive record and goal-scoring consistency in away fixtures
- Head-to-head historical results between the two clubs with recent weighting
- Current league standings and momentum indicators (points in last 5-10 matches)
- Confirmed team injuries or roster changes affecting key players for either side

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/blaublitz-akita-vs-montedio-yamagata-more-markets
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=blaublitz-akita-vs-montedio-yamagata-more-markets
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

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