# Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the Senate Judiciary Committee holds a hearing for, or votes to report, a district-court or U.S.-attorney nomination associated with a state where a sitting home-state senator has not returned an affirmative blue slip before Jan 1, 2028

> Closed. Last odds frozen 13 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/blueslip-26
Updated: 2026-06-25T07:20:51.213Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2029-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Before Jan 1, 2029 at 35%
- Runner-up: Before Jan 1, 2028 at 33%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2029 | 35¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-it-be-reported-by-any-of-the-source-agencies-kalshi-kxblueslip-26-29jan01 |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 33¢ | +18pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-it-be-reported-by-any-of-the-source-agencies-kalshi-kxblueslip-26-28jan01 |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 16¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-it-be-reported-by-any-of-the-source-agencies-kalshi-kxblueslip-26-27jan01 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Jan 1, 2029 | Before Jan 1, 2028 | Before Jan 1, 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | 15 | 9 | 3 |
| 2026-06-18 | 27 | 27 | 6 |
| 2026-06-20 | — | — | 17 |
| 2026-06-21 | — | — | 16 |
| 2026-06-22 | 35 | — | — |
| 2026-06-23 | 35 | — | 16 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-18 · Before Jan 1, 2028 +18pp 9→27¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-18 · Before Jan 1, 2029 +12pp 15→27¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · Before Jan 1, 2027 +11pp 6→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Before Jan 1, 2029 +8pp 27→35¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-18 · Before Jan 1, 2027 +3pp 3→6¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This question asks whether the Senate Judiciary Committee will hold a hearing for, or vote to report, a district-court or U.S. attorney nominee from a state where the home-state senator hasn't submitted an affirmative blue slip by early 2029. The 18% probability reflects the traditional strength of the blue-slip custom, which has historically constrained judicial nominations from progressing without home-state senator support. The probability increases across the three time horizons (7% by 2027, 13% by 2028, 18% by 2029), suggesting modest expectations that this norm may erode over time. Key drivers include Senate dynamics around judicial confirmations, shifts in how both parties treat blue-slip practices, and whether court vacancies create political pressure to bypass traditional gatekeeping. The resolution depends on reported committee actions matching the specified criteria before January 1, 2029.

### Key factors

- Historical blue-slip enforcement: Senate Judiciary Committee has typically not advanced judicial nominations without affirmative blue slips, though recent administrations have occasionally tested these limits
- Current Senate composition and majority party stance on judicial nominations: Whether the majority views blue slips as binding custom versus advisory practice
- Number and visibility of available vacancies in federal judiciary: Fewer urgent vacancies reduce pressure to bypass nomination procedures
- Precedent from 2017-2021 and subsequent years: Observable pattern of whether committees held hearings or voted despite missing blue slips
- Political calendar and nomination pace: Slower nomination throughput reduces probability of encountering blue-slip disputes by January 2029

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/blueslip-26
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=blueslip-26
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.