# BNB price up in next 15 mins

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 39% across 19 contracts — refreshed 5 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/bnb15m
Updated: 2026-05-03T17:21:00.952Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 39% (liquidity-weighted across 19 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 48% / Polymarket 26% — 22pp spread
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price to Beat: 2.28 | 61¢ | +13pp | $521 | kalshi | /markets/h100-sxm-price-up-in-next-week-price-to-beat-228-kalshi-kxh100w-26may08-2.28 |
| World Cup | 90¢ | −1pp | $255 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-airbnb-inc-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionabnb-26may07-worl |
| ↑ 1600 | 7¢ | −32pp | $107 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bnb-hit-in-2026-1600-polymarket-0x928fa1f1e0b2ac120a1576843b4d7df0bab8a9d0a2967c84bc46f5b928ad78b2 |
| ↓ 300 | 24¢ | +1pp | $65 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bnb-hit-in-2026-300-polymarket-0xdb891dcb952d1c56e0c1a2520f4d6f3bca86404dd8c030eec7b255dd0031d56d |
| Acquisition | 39¢ | +6pp | $52 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-airbnb-inc-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionabnb-26may07-acqu |
| Social Media | 59¢ | −7pp | $46 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-airbnb-inc-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionabnb-26may07-soci |
| Home Sharing | 47¢ | −4pp | $46 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-airbnb-inc-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionabnb-26may07-home |
| ↓ 200 | 13¢ | −1pp | $34 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bnb-hit-in-2026-200-polymarket-0x1b3b0ec31706959c563acb759df21db7140906955d2e36400f94e07da04efbb3 |
| ↓ 400 | 37¢ | −1pp | $9 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bnb-hit-in-2026-400-polymarket-0xef8bd93889604ec6c8b1b0dd1ace2a828ea74e2982393eede604ae7eb3beddc9 |
| ↓ 500 | 77¢ | −8pp | $5 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bnb-hit-in-2026-500-polymarket-0x3d82b513a77fc0c0144e9257387a9e84812f1b02174c2d3d7efba3fc8b974857 |
| Headwind | 65¢ | −6pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-airbnb-inc-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionabnb-26may07-head |
| ↑ 1500 | 8¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bnb-hit-in-2026-1500-polymarket-0x9910304902d0375ab78a94167862830f34da5c0f11477819343ae6ed43a14c63 |
| ↑ 1400 | 9¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bnb-hit-in-2026-1400-polymarket-0x82928ab9e35c041842b7d6a6ca45a9722934967a4368c49c85152e3dc214f5c0 |
| Take Rate | 56¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-airbnb-inc-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionabnb-26may07-take |
| Domestic | 77¢ | +9pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-airbnb-inc-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionabnb-26may07-dome |
| Price to Beat: 1.14 | 6¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/a100-sxm4-price-up-in-next-week-price-to-beat-114-kalshi-kxa100w-26may08-1.14 |
| $525 or above | 13¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/bnb-price-on-may-3-2026-525-or-above-kalshi-kxbnbd-26may0317-t524.99 |
| China | 17¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-airbnb-inc-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionabnb-26may07-chin |
| ↑ 1000 | 30¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bnb-hit-in-2026-1000-polymarket-0xa0ae2e664b35652b182fc8b9dd6f69b13c3e9b7688baf922b762367f48c3e29e |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 25 |
| 2026-04-19 | 38 |
| 2026-04-26 | 50 |
| 2026-05-03 | 44 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Price to Beat: 2.28 +38pp 2→40¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-28 · ↑ 1600 +33pp 7→40¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · ↑ 1600 −32pp 40→8¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-01 · Take Rate +30pp 46→76¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-30 · Take Rate −26pp 72→46¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/bnb15m
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=bnb15m

## License

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