# Will BNB trimmed mean be above $610.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Dec 31, 2026

> Above $600.00 leads at 91%, runner-up 79% across 8 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 11 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/bnbmaxy-bnb
Updated: 2026-07-23T23:20:49.550Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Above $600.00 at 91%
- Runner-up: Above $610.00 at 79%
- Outcomes: 8 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $111

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $600.00 | 91¢ | — | $16 | kalshi | /markets/will-bnb-trimmed-mean-be-above-60000-by-1159-pm-et-kalshi-kxbnbmaxy-bnb-26dec31-60000 |
| Above $610.00 | 79¢ | +12pp | $53 | kalshi | /markets/will-bnb-trimmed-mean-be-above-61000-by-1159-pm-et-kalshi-kxbnbmaxy-bnb-26dec31-61000 |
| Above $620.00 | 56¢ | +3pp | $41 | kalshi | /markets/will-bnb-trimmed-mean-be-above-62000-by-1159-pm-et-kalshi-kxbnbmaxy-bnb-26dec31-62000 |
| Above $630.00 | 52¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bnb-trimmed-mean-be-above-63000-by-1159-pm-et-kalshi-kxbnbmaxy-bnb-26dec31-63000 |
| Above $640.00 | 11¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bnb-trimmed-mean-be-above-64000-by-1159-pm-et-kalshi-kxbnbmaxy-bnb-26dec31-64000 |
| Above $650.00 | 11¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bnb-trimmed-mean-be-above-65000-by-1159-pm-et-kalshi-kxbnbmaxy-bnb-26dec31-65000 |
| Above $660.00 | 6¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bnb-trimmed-mean-be-above-66000-by-1159-pm-et-kalshi-kxbnbmaxy-bnb-26dec31-66000 |
| Above $670.00 | 5¢ | +2pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-bnb-trimmed-mean-be-above-67000-by-1159-pm-et-kalshi-kxbnbmaxy-bnb-26dec31-67000 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above $600.00 | Above $610.00 | Above $620.00 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | 65 | 69 | 51 |
| 2026-07-23 | — | 81 | 54 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-23 · Above $610.00 +12pp 69→81¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-23 · Above $620.00 +3pp 51→54¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract estimates an 80% probability that BNB's trimmed mean price will exceed $610 by year-end 2026, based on current market pricing. The high confidence reflects traders' expectations of sustained strength in the Binance token through December, though the 11% drop from the $600 threshold suggests meaningful uncertainty about further upside. Primary drivers include BNB's correlation with broader crypto market conditions, regulatory developments affecting Binance, and institutional adoption trends. The main uncertainty resolves through December 31, 2026, when the year-end average is calculated. Currently, markets price only an 11% chance of BNB reaching $640 by year-end, indicating traders expect consolidation rather than explosive growth from current levels. Trading volume remains modest across these contracts, which may affect price efficiency and create opportunities for informed positions.

### Key factors

- BNB traded near $610-$620 on July 23, 2026; the $610 contract at 80¢ implies markets see a 20% probability of year-end prices falling below this level
- A $30 spread between the $600 contract (91¢) and the $640 contract (11¢) shows conviction that BNB will settle in a narrow band rather than appreciate significantly over five months
- Binance regulatory status and any enforcement actions between July and December 2026 would materially impact BNB demand and network activity
- The trimmed mean methodology filters extreme daily values, reducing impact of flash crashes or manipulation, but still depends on actual December 2026 trading levels
- Crypto market-wide sentiment shifts, including Federal Reserve policy or institutional capital flows, would directly influence whether BNB maintains support above $610

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/bnbmaxy-bnb
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=bnbmaxy-bnb

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