# Will Jacob Elordi be the next James Bond

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 9% across 11 contracts — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/bond
Updated: 2026-06-26T07:20:51.039Z
Category: entertainment
Status: active
Closes: 2030-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 9% (liquidity-weighted across 11 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (11 contracts)
- 24h volume: $6K

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Elordi | 17¢ | −1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-jacob-elordi-be-the-next-james-bond-jacob-elo-kalshi-kxbond-30-jaco |
| Callum Turner | 43¢ | −3pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-callum-turner-be-the-next-james-bond-callum-t-kalshi-kxbond-30-cal |
| Theo James | 3¢ | −2pp | $693 | kalshi | /markets/will-theo-james-be-the-next-james-bond-theo-james-kalshi-kxbond-30-theo |
| Aaron Taylor-Johnson | 8¢ | +1pp | $686 | kalshi | /markets/will-aaron-taylor-johnson-be-the-next-james-bond-a-kalshi-kxbond-30-atj |
| Aaron Pierre | 4¢ | −1pp | $624 | kalshi | /markets/will-aaron-pierre-be-the-next-james-bond-aaron-pie-kalshi-kxbond-30-ap |
| Harris Dickinson | 3¢ | −2pp | $616 | kalshi | /markets/will-harris-dickinson-be-the-next-james-bond-harri-kalshi-kxbond-30-har |
| Jack Lowden | 3¢ | +1pp | $521 | kalshi | /markets/will-jack-lowden-be-the-next-james-bond-jack-lowde-kalshi-kxbond-30-jac |
| James Norton | 3¢ | +1pp | $281 | kalshi | /markets/will-james-norton-be-the-next-james-bond-james-nor-kalshi-kxbond-30-jn |
| Charlie Hunnam | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-charlie-hunnam-be-the-next-james-bond-charlie-kalshi-kxbond-30-charl |
| Henry Cavill | 3¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-henry-cavill-be-the-next-james-bond-henry-cav-kalshi-kxbond-30-hc |
| Josh O'Connor | 7¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-josh-oconnor-be-the-next-james-bond-josh-ocon-kalshi-kxbond-30-jos |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 15 |
| 2026-06-12 | 16 |
| 2026-06-19 | 15 |
| 2026-06-26 | 9 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-20 · Callum Turner +8pp 40→48¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · Harris Dickinson +7pp 5→12¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Callum Turner −6pp 49→43¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Aaron Pierre −5pp 10→5¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Harris Dickinson −5pp 13→8¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the likelihood that Jacob Elordi will be cast as the next James Bond actor when the role is next filled. The 13% aggregate probability reflects modest confidence in Elordi as a candidate among competing actors. Elordi's youth, acting credentials, and physical profile align with typical Bond casting criteria, supporting his consideration in the talent pool. However, the 11-percentage-point gap between Kalshi and Polymarket suggests uncertainty about his odds relative to other candidates like Callum Turner (44¢ on Kalshi). The primary catalyst for resolution is an official casting announcement from EON Productions, which typically occurs years before a film release. Until then, market participants are pricing in Elordi's candidacy based on public speculation, Hollywood insiders' commentary, and his career trajectory. The relative illiquidity across venues (most contracts under $1,000 daily volume) indicates limited market attention to this specific outcome.

### Key factors

- Callum Turner trades significantly higher (44¢) than Elordi (3-6¢), suggesting Polymarket and Kalshi participants view Turner as a stronger candidate
- No official casting announcement has been made by EON Productions; current prices reflect pre-announcement speculation with substantial uncertainty
- Elordi's recent filmography and public profile relative to competing actors will influence perceived suitability for the role among market participants
- The timing of the next Bond film's pre-production and casting window is not yet confirmed, affecting how soon this market resolves
- Cross-venue probability gap of 11 percentage points indicates materially different assessments or trading behaviors between Kalshi and Polymarket participants

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/bond
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=bond

## License

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