# Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar

> Bosnia and Herzegovina leads at 47%, runner-up 37% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 7 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/bosnia-and-herzegovina-vs-qatar
Updated: 2026-05-09T08:50:23.527Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-24

## Headline

- Leader: Bosnia and Herzegovina at 47%
- Runner-up: Qatar at 37%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 47¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/bosnia-and-herzegovina-vs-qatar-bosnia-and-herzego-polymarket-0xf224cac9c315d3693bbcbd8406460b8052ecc40df364f7e2bc6079c072cfe219 |
| Qatar | 37¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/bosnia-and-herzegovina-vs-qatar-qatar-polymarket-0x339c300a9cfe452223d315d03c35473063ee904bbf3821741ed2e3ddfc27426d |
| Draw (Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar) | 33¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/bosnia-and-herzegovina-vs-qatar-draw-bosnia-and-he-polymarket-0x44a0f6adbea52acf0a97b90870a637a0bf577dc09b9b376ea56a0fbe86f68e12 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Bosnia and Herzegovina | Qatar | Draw (Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 47 | 41 | — |
| 2026-05-01 | 47 | 40 | 36 |
| 2026-05-02 | 47 | — | — |
| 2026-05-03 | 47 | 39 | — |
| 2026-05-06 | — | — | 34 |
| 2026-05-07 | 47 | 38 | 34 |
| 2026-05-08 | — | 38 | 33 |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Bosnia and Herzegovina will defeat Qatar in an upcoming match. The 33% median probability suggests bookmakers view Bosnia as the underdog, with Qatar favored despite Bosnia's recent competitive performances. The 6-percentage-point gap between venues indicates some disagreement about match dynamics, possibly reflecting different assessments of team form, injury status, or head-to-head records. The outcome depends on team composition, tactical setup, and match conditions on the day of play. Liquidity across contracts remains modest, suggesting limited trading activity and potential for probability shifts as the match date approaches and new information about team readiness emerges.

### Key factors

- Bosnia and Herzegovina's current FIFA ranking and recent match results against comparable opponents
- Qatar's home-field advantage status and performance record in competitive fixtures
- Injury reports or roster changes for either team in the weeks before the scheduled match
- Historical head-to-head results between Bosnia and Herzegovina and Qatar
- Betting volume disparity between venues, indicating which market has stronger conviction in the pricing

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/bosnia-and-herzegovina-vs-qatar
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=bosnia-and-herzegovina-vs-qatar

## License

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