# Boston Legacy FC vs. Denver Summit FC

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 42% across 13 contracts — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/boston-legacy-fc-vs-denver-summit-fc
Updated: 2026-05-03T14:35:20.438Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-17

## Headline

- Probability: 42% (liquidity-weighted across 13 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (13 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4K

## Bound contracts (13)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Breach | 14¢ | +3pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-boston-breach-win-the-boston-breach-vs-paris-kalshi-kxcodgame-26may031800bospar-bos |
| Paris Gentle Mates | 84¢ | +1pp | $316 | kalshi | /markets/will-paris-gentle-mates-win-the-boston-breach-vs-p-kalshi-kxcodgame-26may031800bospar-par |
| Paris Gentle Mates | 57¢ | ±0 | $290 | kalshi | /markets/will-paris-gentle-mates-win-map-2-in-the-boston-br-kalshi-kxcodmap-26may031800bospar-2-par |
| Boston Breach | 12¢ | −3pp | $247 | kalshi | /markets/will-boston-breach-win-map-1-in-the-boston-breach-kalshi-kxcodmap-26may031800bospar-1-bos |
| Denver Summit FC | 33¢ | — | $198 | kalshi | /markets/boston-legacy-fc-vs-denver-summit-fc-winner-denver-kalshi-kxnwslgame-26may03bosden-den |
| Over 3.5 maps | 53¢ | −18pp | $139 | kalshi | /markets/will-over-35-maps-be-played-in-the-boston-breach-v-kalshi-kxcodtotalmaps-26may031800bospar-4 |
| Tie | 27¢ | +5pp | $97 | kalshi | /markets/boston-legacy-fc-vs-denver-summit-fc-winner-tie-kalshi-kxnwslgame-26may03bosden-tie |
| Boston Breach | 35¢ | +2pp | $68 | kalshi | /markets/will-boston-breach-win-map-2-in-the-boston-breach-kalshi-kxcodmap-26may031800bospar-2-bos |
| Paris Gentle Mates | 67¢ | +1pp | $64 | kalshi | /markets/will-paris-gentle-mates-win-map-3-in-the-boston-br-kalshi-kxcodmap-26may031800bospar-3-par |
| Boston Legacy FC | 40¢ | +5pp | $52 | kalshi | /markets/boston-legacy-fc-vs-denver-summit-fc-winner-boston-kalshi-kxnwslgame-26may03bosden-bos |
| Paris Gentle Mates | 79¢ | −8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-paris-gentle-mates-win-map-1-in-the-boston-br-kalshi-kxcodmap-26may031800bospar-1-par |
| Over 4.5 maps | 16¢ | −14pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-over-45-maps-be-played-in-the-boston-breach-v-kalshi-kxcodtotalmaps-26may031800bospar-5 |
| Boston Breach | 25¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-boston-breach-win-map-3-in-the-boston-breach-kalshi-kxcodmap-26may031800bospar-3-bos |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 31 |
| 2026-05-01 | 36 |
| 2026-05-02 | 41 |
| 2026-05-03 | 39 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-01 · Over 3.5 maps +26pp 2→28¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Over 3.5 maps +18pp 28→46¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Over 3.5 maps −18pp 46→28¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Over 4.5 maps −14pp 17→3¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Paris Gentle Mates +13pp 54→67¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market reflects a 38% probability that Boston Legacy FC will defeat Denver Summit FC in an upcoming match. The probability is anchored by aggregated contract data from two venues, with Polymarket pricing slightly higher at 39% versus Kalshi's 37%. Boston Legacy FC would need to overcome Denver Summit FC's apparent competitive positioning to win, which investors assess as occurring less than four times out of ten. The narrow 2-percentage-point gap between venues suggests reasonable market consensus, though the relatively low trading volume on the direct matchup contract ($60 in 24-hour volume) indicates limited liquidity and potential for repricing as the event approaches. Key outcomes that could shift the probability include roster changes, recent performance trends, head-to-head historical records, and venue or weather conditions on match day.

### Key factors

- Direct matchup contract shows Denver Summit FC at 33 cents on Kalshi, implying ~67% probability for Denver, which contradicts the 38% aggregated Boston probability—suggesting possible data inconsistency or that aggregation includes different event types
- 24-hour trading volume on the Boston vs. Denver contract is only $60, indicating thin liquidity and susceptibility to repricing with new information
- Polymarket prices Denver at 61 cents (39% Boston) while Kalski prices it at 63 cents (37% Boston), showing cross-venue consensus but with notable contract distribution across separate matchups rather than direct head-to-head volume
- No scheduled match date or time is specified in available data, making it unclear whether the event is imminent or weeks away—affecting information arrival and probability stability
- The market data mixes unrelated contracts (Boston Breach vs. OpTic Texas series) alongside the Boston Legacy vs. Denver Summit query, raising questions about which underlying event drives the aggregated probability

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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