# Boston Legacy FC vs. North Carolina Courage - More Markets: O/U 2.5

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 45% across 10 contracts — refreshed 57 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/boston-legacy-fc-vs-north-carolina-courage-more-markets-ou
Updated: 2026-06-24T14:20:51.582Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2029-11-07

## Headline

- Probability: 45% (liquidity-weighted across 10 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roy Cooper | 86¢ | ±0 | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-democratics-win-the-senate-race-in-north-caro-kalshi-senatenc-26-d |
| Yes | 42¢ | ±0 | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-democrats-win-the-2026-senate-elections-in-ge-kalshi-kxdemcorefoursenatesweep-26nov03 |
| Democratic party | 68¢ | +1pp | $11 | kalshi | /markets/will-democratics-win-the-senate-race-in-north-caro-kalshi-senatenc-28-d |
| Republicans, 1+ pts | 10¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-republicans-in-the-kalshi-kxmidtermmov-ncsenr-p1 |
| Democrats, 9+ pts | 35¢ | −7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-democrats-in-the-us-kalshi-kxmidtermmov-ncsend-p9 |
| Democrats, 11+ pts | 30¢ | −6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-democrats-in-the-us-kalshi-kxmidtermmov-ncsend-p11 |
| Republican party | 86¢ | +8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-north-carolina-state-senate-repub-kalshi-kxstateleg-ncsen26-r |
| Republicans, 3+ pts | 6¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-republicans-in-the-kalshi-kxmidtermmov-ncsenr-p3 |
| Democrats, 13+ pts | 24¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-democrats-in-the-us-kalshi-kxmidtermmov-ncsend-p13 |
| Democratic | 65¢ | +18pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-democratic-party-win-the-governorship-in-kalshi-govpartync-28-d |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | 47 |
| 2026-06-10 | 35 |
| 2026-06-16 | 30 |
| 2026-06-24 | 64 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-19 · Democrats, 9+ pts −7pp 42→35¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Democrats, 11+ pts −6pp 36→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-18 · Yes −5pp 45→40¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Democrats, 13+ pts −4pp 28→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Yes +3pp 37→40¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market is asking whether Boston Legacy FC and North Carolina Courage will score more than 2.5 combined goals in their match. The 40% probability reflects moderate expectations for a relatively low-scoring outcome. The significant 26-point gap between Kalshi and Polymarket suggests different assessments of these teams' offensive capabilities and defensive strength. Historical matchup data, recent team form, and player availability would typically influence such forecasts. The resolution depends entirely on the final goal count when these teams play, making current team lineups and match conditions the primary drivers of probability shifts before kickoff.

### Key factors

- Recent goal-scoring records for both Boston Legacy FC and North Carolina Courage in their last 5-10 matches
- Historical head-to-head results between these specific teams, including average goals per match
- Current injury status or roster changes affecting key offensive or defensive players for either squad
- Weather conditions and field state on match day, which can impact pace of play and scoring likelihood
- Kalshi's substantially higher probability (42%) versus Polymarket (16%) suggests divergent data sources or modeling assumptions that should be reconciled

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/boston-legacy-fc-vs-north-carolina-courage-more-markets-ou
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=boston-legacy-fc-vs-north-carolina-courage-more-markets-ou

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