# Boston Legacy FC vs. North Carolina Courage - More Markets

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 45% across 10 contracts — refreshed 12 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/boston-legacy-fc-vs-north-carolina-courage-more-markets
Updated: 2026-06-24T15:20:48.909Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2029-11-07

## Headline

- Probability: 45% (liquidity-weighted across 10 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roy Cooper | 86¢ | ±0 | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-democratics-win-the-senate-race-in-north-caro-kalshi-senatenc-26-d |
| Yes | 42¢ | ±0 | $950 | kalshi | /markets/will-democrats-win-the-2026-senate-elections-in-ge-kalshi-kxdemcorefoursenatesweep-26nov03 |
| Democratic party | 68¢ | +1pp | $11 | kalshi | /markets/will-democratics-win-the-senate-race-in-north-caro-kalshi-senatenc-28-d |
| Republicans, 1+ pts | 10¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-republicans-in-the-kalshi-kxmidtermmov-ncsenr-p1 |
| Democrats, 9+ pts | 35¢ | −7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-democrats-in-the-us-kalshi-kxmidtermmov-ncsend-p9 |
| Democrats, 11+ pts | 30¢ | −6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-democrats-in-the-us-kalshi-kxmidtermmov-ncsend-p11 |
| Republican party | 86¢ | +8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-north-carolina-state-senate-repub-kalshi-kxstateleg-ncsen26-r |
| Republicans, 3+ pts | 6¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-republicans-in-the-kalshi-kxmidtermmov-ncsenr-p3 |
| Democrats, 13+ pts | 24¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-democrats-in-the-us-kalshi-kxmidtermmov-ncsend-p13 |
| Democratic | 65¢ | +18pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-democratic-party-win-the-governorship-in-kalshi-govpartync-28-d |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | 47 |
| 2026-06-10 | 35 |
| 2026-06-16 | 30 |
| 2026-06-24 | 64 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-19 · Democrats, 9+ pts −7pp 42→35¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Democrats, 11+ pts −6pp 36→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-18 · Yes −5pp 45→40¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Democrats, 13+ pts −4pp 28→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Yes +3pp 37→40¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the current market assessment of Democratic performance in North Carolina's 2026 Senate race, positioned at 45% based on aggregated contract pricing. The market is pricing in competitive dynamics in a state that has become increasingly contested between parties. Key drivers of this probability include candidate quality and name recognition—particularly Roy Cooper's strong positioning at 85 cents suggests market confidence in the Democratic nominee—as well as broader national political momentum heading into the election cycle. Turnout patterns and suburban voter preferences in North Carolina will likely prove decisive. The primary elections and candidate nominations will serve as critical checkpoints, with the general election campaign intensity ramping up through fall 2026. Resolution will depend on actual vote tallies in November 2026.

### Key factors

- Roy Cooper Senate contract prices at 85¢ indicate high market confidence in the Democratic nominee's viability compared to the lower 45¢ aggregate probability
- Margin-of-victory contracts show sharp probability drops (30¢ for 11+ points, 24¢ for 13+ points), suggesting markets expect a close race rather than a decisive outcome
- The 37¢ probability on Democrats winning Senate seats in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina AND Maine indicates the market views a North Carolina Democratic win as less likely than the 45% standalone figure, reflecting competitive headwinds
- Democratic gubernatorial contract at 65¢ shows higher confidence in state-level Democratic performance than Senate performance, suggesting candidate-specific or race-specific factors are suppressing Senate odds
- 24-hour trading volumes are minimal on margin contracts and near-zero on some positions, indicating limited recent price discovery and potential for significant repricing as election approaches

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/boston-legacy-fc-vs-north-carolina-courage-more-markets
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=boston-legacy-fc-vs-north-carolina-courage-more-markets

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