# Boston Legacy FC vs. North Carolina Courage

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 45% across 10 contracts — refreshed 56 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/boston-legacy-fc-vs-north-carolina-courage
Updated: 2026-06-24T14:20:51.148Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2029-11-07

## Headline

- Probability: 45% (liquidity-weighted across 10 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roy Cooper | 86¢ | ±0 | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-democratics-win-the-senate-race-in-north-caro-kalshi-senatenc-26-d |
| Yes | 42¢ | ±0 | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-democrats-win-the-2026-senate-elections-in-ge-kalshi-kxdemcorefoursenatesweep-26nov03 |
| Democratic party | 68¢ | +1pp | $11 | kalshi | /markets/will-democratics-win-the-senate-race-in-north-caro-kalshi-senatenc-28-d |
| Republicans, 1+ pts | 10¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-republicans-in-the-kalshi-kxmidtermmov-ncsenr-p1 |
| Democrats, 9+ pts | 35¢ | −7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-democrats-in-the-us-kalshi-kxmidtermmov-ncsend-p9 |
| Democrats, 11+ pts | 30¢ | −6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-democrats-in-the-us-kalshi-kxmidtermmov-ncsend-p11 |
| Republican party | 86¢ | +8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-north-carolina-state-senate-repub-kalshi-kxstateleg-ncsen26-r |
| Republicans, 3+ pts | 6¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-republicans-in-the-kalshi-kxmidtermmov-ncsenr-p3 |
| Democrats, 13+ pts | 24¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-democrats-in-the-us-kalshi-kxmidtermmov-ncsend-p13 |
| Democratic | 65¢ | +18pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-democratic-party-win-the-governorship-in-kalshi-govpartync-28-d |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | 47 |
| 2026-06-10 | 35 |
| 2026-06-16 | 30 |
| 2026-06-24 | 64 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-19 · Democrats, 9+ pts −7pp 42→35¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Democrats, 11+ pts −6pp 36→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-18 · Yes −5pp 45→40¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Democrats, 13+ pts −4pp 28→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Yes +3pp 37→40¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 45% probability reflects the estimated likelihood of a specific outcome in North Carolina's 2026 elections, based on aggregated market data from multiple contracts. The current assessment sits near the middle ground, suggesting meaningful uncertainty about Democratic performance in the state. The probability is primarily driven by polling data, historical voting patterns, and assessments of candidate viability. Factors pushing the probability higher include demographic trends and recent Democratic organizational efforts, while factors pushing it lower reflect North Carolina's competitive nature and Republican strengths in certain regions. The resolution of this uncertainty will depend on actual election results in November 2026, which represents the key catalyst that will determine the final outcome and eliminate remaining market speculation.

### Key factors

- Current polling averages in North Carolina compared to national Democratic performance trends
- Voter registration data and demographic shifts in key counties that have shown movement toward or away from Democratic candidates
- Candidate quality and campaign infrastructure, including fundraising and ground organization metrics
- Historical margin patterns in statewide North Carolina races over the past three election cycles
- Election date of November 2026 serves as the definitive resolution point when actual vote totals replace all probabilistic forecasting

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/boston-legacy-fc-vs-north-carolina-courage
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=boston-legacy-fc-vs-north-carolina-courage

## License

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