# Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club - More Markets

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/botafogo-fr-vs-racing-club-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-08T00:50:26.603Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-07

## Headline

- Leader: O/U 1.5 at 70%
- Runner-up: Both Teams to Score at 51%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $957

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 1.5 | 70¢ | +15pp | $18 | polymarket | /markets/botafogo-fr-vs-racing-club-more-markets-ou-15-polymarket-0xc91f8e08309e1027dabc6b2cda81f406f89051e264358b7bd9aea303ff73fc4a |
| Both Teams to Score | 51¢ | +9pp | $42 | polymarket | /markets/botafogo-fr-vs-racing-club-more-markets-both-teams-polymarket-0xd61678fa4fcefd059e3ba900fe3e6fea3c2fc0339c7dc74dc06327cafaefcc29 |
| O/U 2.5 | 44¢ | +13pp | $517 | polymarket | /markets/botafogo-fr-vs-racing-club-more-markets-ou-25-polymarket-0x32d4ab3bd3997a305ae20a572bdf97c7dcabb1f001475fb23cd632c4697e3c4b |
| O/U 3.5 | 23¢ | +7pp | $30 | polymarket | /markets/botafogo-fr-vs-racing-club-more-markets-ou-35-polymarket-0x9bdf90f99d362aeb78ea9a8c83a91588de737a96a2b6ef02f29aaab646ee2be9 |
| Botafogo FR (-1.5) | 19¢ | −2pp | $57 | polymarket | /markets/botafogo-fr-vs-racing-club-more-markets-botafogo-f-polymarket-0xd6abb87ba0ae1a681305a13dbb470174bb33f26fe69013668ac49d89df162411 |
| Racing Club (-1.5) | 10¢ | −6pp | $111 | polymarket | /markets/botafogo-fr-vs-racing-club-more-markets-racing-clu-polymarket-0xc988a4434c1b06d250ae5edd9945b7d6f9a0a6027145f8c268ec1f6b992e7704 |
| O/U 4.5 | 10¢ | +11pp | $89 | polymarket | /markets/botafogo-fr-vs-racing-club-more-markets-ou-45-polymarket-0x5c8e4184d6f4024ab811a8317c5df79cc5beca815221eaca6fae9d323d39b6f1 |
| Botafogo FR (-2.5) | 7¢ | +5pp | $41 | polymarket | /markets/botafogo-fr-vs-racing-club-more-markets-botafogo-f-polymarket-0x50a3e558463a15a07f4a2cf28e50c9f22ed79f5575401475ea57e33d93a4ff1a |
| Racing Club (-2.5) | 3¢ | −4pp | $52 | polymarket | /markets/botafogo-fr-vs-racing-club-more-markets-racing-clu-polymarket-0x15e436257d2a94c17744fc777abb55ec9373f67f1587cd55fa8a7f6c22a084a3 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | O/U 1.5 | Both Teams to Score | O/U 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | — | 48 | — |
| 2026-05-06 | 70 | 51 | 44 |
| 2026-05-07 | 85 | 60 | 57 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · O/U 1.5 +15pp 70→85¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Botafogo FR (-2.5) −14pp 21→7¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · O/U 2.5 +13pp 44→57¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Racing Club (-1.5) −13pp 23→10¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · O/U 4.5 +11pp 9→20¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 31% probability reflects the market's assessment that Racing Club will win the upcoming match against Botafogo FR. The probability sits between the implied odds of Racing Club at -2.5 spread (11¢) and Botafogo FR at -2.5 (14¢), suggesting relatively even match expectations with slight lean toward Racing Club. Key factors driving this level include recent team form, head-to-head history, and whether either squad carries injury concerns into the fixture. The market would likely shift if one team experiences significant roster changes before kickoff or if recent performance data shifts expectations. The match itself represents the primary resolution event—the final score will determine whether Racing Club wins, loses, or draws, directly settling the probability's validity.

### Key factors

- Racing Club's recent win-loss record and current league position compared to Botafogo FR's form heading into the fixture
- Head-to-head historical performance between these teams and whether one holds a statistical advantage in direct matchups
- Absence or presence of key injured players for either squad that would materially affect competitive balance
- Home vs. away status and venue advantage, as this significantly impacts competitive balance in Copa Libertadores and domestic competitions
- Market spread between Racing Club (-2.5) trading at 11¢ versus Botafogo FR (-2.5) at 14¢ suggests asymmetric confidence despite similar spreads

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/botafogo-fr-vs-racing-club-more-markets
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=botafogo-fr-vs-racing-club-more-markets

## License

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