# Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club

> Botafogo FR leads at 44%, runner-up 31% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/botafogo-fr-vs-racing-club
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:05:49.950Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-07

## Headline

- Leader: Botafogo FR at 44%
- Runner-up: Racing Club at 31%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo FR | 44¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/botafogo-fr-vs-racing-club-botafogo-fr-polymarket-0xc2f328a9557d0634689aa2e28c5c24a8ae411192805c067a3aac1632460b09e8 |
| Racing Club | 31¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/botafogo-fr-vs-racing-club-racing-club-polymarket-0x788488e1672c2503844530ad04506562c0db40c96b110a220f14ba9d4a52e536 |
| Draw (Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club) | 28¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/botafogo-fr-vs-racing-club-draw-botafogo-fr-vs-rac-polymarket-0x286a722d9d0d0a1383053184d59b641d9d28a706ea81056c2210efa32ba052c4 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Botafogo FR | Draw (Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club) |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 45 | — |
| 2026-05-03 | 45 | 28 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects market participants' assessment that Botafogo FR has a 34% chance of winning against Racing Club in an upcoming match. The 12-percentage-point gap between Kalshi and Polymarket suggests some disagreement about the teams' relative strength, with Kalshi traders pricing in a higher probability for Botafogo. The contract prices indicate this is likely a domestic Brazilian league fixture, where recent form, head-to-head records, and squad availability typically drive outcomes. Resolution will occur on the match date when a winner is determined by final score, barring cancellation or postponement. The relatively thin volume on some related contracts suggests moderate liquidity across venues, which may contribute to the pricing discrepancy.

### Key factors

- Kalshi prices Botafogo 12 points higher than Polymarket average, indicating venue-specific disagreement on relative team strength
- Recent form and injury status of both teams' key players have not been updated; roster changes would materially affect match outcome
- Head-to-head historical record between Botafogo and Racing in their last 5 encounters—typically a strong predictor in domestic league play
- Home-field advantage: the venue and whether either team is playing at home could shift win probability by 5-10 points based on typical performance patterns
- Contract volumes are relatively modest (highest related volume $74 in 24h), suggesting limited market conviction and potential for repricing as match date approaches

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/botafogo-fr-vs-racing-club
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=botafogo-fr-vs-racing-club

## License

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