# La Velada del Año VI

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 39% across 20 contracts — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/boxing
Updated: 2026-06-26T07:20:49.026Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-10-04

## Headline

- Probability: 39% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $196K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xander Zayas | 26¢ | −2pp | $100K | kalshi | /markets/xander-zayas-vs-jaron-ennis-winner-xander-zayas-kalshi-kxboxing-26jun27zayasennis-zayas |
| Jaron Ennis | 75¢ | +2pp | $77K | kalshi | /markets/xander-zayas-vs-jaron-ennis-winner-jaron-ennis-kalshi-kxboxing-26jun27zayasennis-ennis |
| Richard Rivera | 8¢ | ±0 | $6K | kalshi | /markets/ben-whittaker-vs-richard-rivera-winner-richard-riv-kalshi-kxboxing-26jun27whittarivera-rivera |
| Bryce Mills | 12¢ | −3pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/emiliano-vargas-vs-bryce-mills-winner-bryce-mills-kalshi-kxboxing-26jun27vargasmills-mills |
| Canelo Alvarez | 76¢ | +1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/canelo-alvarez-vs-christian-mbilli-winner-canelo-a-kalshi-kxboxing-26sep12calvarmbilli-calvar |
| Ben Whittaker | 91¢ | +8pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/ben-whittaker-vs-richard-rivera-winner-ben-whittak-kalshi-kxboxing-26jun27whittarivera-whitta |
| Emiliano Vargas | 84¢ | ±0 | $1K | kalshi | /markets/emiliano-vargas-vs-bryce-mills-winner-emiliano-var-kalshi-kxboxing-26jun27vargasmills-vargas |
| Manny Pacquiao | 38¢ | +2pp | $994 | kalshi | /markets/floyd-mayweather-jr-vs-manny-pacquiao-winner-manny-kalshi-kxboxing-26sep19fmaympac-mpac |
| Floyd Diaz | 60¢ | −6pp | $920 | kalshi | /markets/floyd-diaz-vs-jose-teran-santibanez-winner-floyd-d-kalshi-kxboxing-26jun28diazsantib-diaz |
| Floyd Mayweather Jr. | 60¢ | ±0 | $802 | kalshi | /markets/floyd-mayweather-jr-vs-manny-pacquiao-winner-floyd-kalshi-kxboxing-26sep19fmaympac-fmay |
| Christian Mbilli | 25¢ | ±0 | $287 | kalshi | /markets/canelo-alvarez-vs-christian-mbilli-winner-christia-kalshi-kxboxing-26sep12calvarmbilli-mbilli |
| Rivers vs Roro Winner?: Rivers | 36¢ | ±0 | $5 | kalshi | /markets/la-velada-del-ao-vi-rivers-vs-roro-winner-rivers-kalshi-kxboxing-26jul25riveroro-rive |
| Lit Killah vs Kidd Keo Winner?: Lit Killah | 31¢ | −8pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/la-velada-del-ao-vi-lit-killah-vs-kidd-keo-winner-kalshi-kxboxing-26jul25lkilkkeo-lkil |
| Fabiana Sevillano vs La Parce Winner?: La Parce | 39¢ | ±0 | $3 | kalshi | /markets/la-velada-del-ao-vi-fabiana-sevillano-vs-la-parce-kalshi-kxboxing-26jul25fsevlpar-lpar |
| Edu Aguirre vs Gastón Edul Winner?: Edu Aguirre | 18¢ | +5pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/la-velada-del-ao-vi-edu-aguirre-vs-gastn-edul-winn-kalshi-kxboxing-26jul25eagugedu-eagu |
| Gero Arias vs Viruzz Winner?: Viruzz | 30¢ | −1pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/la-velada-del-ao-vi-gero-arias-vs-viruzz-winner-vi-kalshi-kxboxing-26jul25gariviru-viru |
| Alondrissa vs Angie Velasco Winner?: Alondrissa | 18¢ | −5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/la-velada-del-ao-vi-alondrissa-vs-angie-velasco-wi-kalshi-kxboxing-26jul25alonavel-alon |
| Alondrissa vs Angie Velasco Winner?: Angie Velasco | 18¢ | −8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/la-velada-del-ao-vi-alondrissa-vs-angie-velasco-wi-kalshi-kxboxing-26jul25alonavel-avel |
| Clersss vs Natalia MX Winner?: Clersss | 10¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/la-velada-del-ao-vi-clersss-vs-natalia-mx-winner-c-kalshi-kxboxing-26jul25clernmx-cler |
| Clersss vs Natalia MX Winner?: Natalia MX | 30¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/la-velada-del-ao-vi-clersss-vs-natalia-mx-winner-n-kalshi-kxboxing-26jul25clernmx-nmx |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 27 |
| 2026-06-12 | 31 |
| 2026-06-19 | 39 |
| 2026-06-26 | 46 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-22 · Lit Killah vs Kidd Keo Winner?: Lit Killah +10pp 31→41¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Xander Zayas +8pp 17→25¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · Ben Whittaker +8pp 82→90¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Lit Killah vs Kidd Keo Winner?: Lit Killah −8pp 39→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Ben Whittaker −6pp 88→82¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

La Velada del Año VI is a boxing/fighting event featuring multiple scheduled matches. The 40% probability represents the current market expectation that Viruzz will defeat Gero Arias in their matchup, one of several bouts on the card. This probability reflects trader assessments of fighter skill, recent performance, and public betting patterns across available contracts. The market shows meaningful uncertainty: Gero Arias has near-equal pricing at 30¢, indicating traders view the matchup as competitive rather than one-sided. Other featured bouts (Sevillano vs La Parce, Plex vs Fernanfloo, IlloJuan vs TheGrefg) carry different odds, suggesting independent evaluation of each fight. The relatively low trading volume on the Gero-Viruzz contract ($2 in 24h volume) indicates limited liquidity, which may amplify price movements as new information or late betting emerges. Key drivers of probability shifts would include fighter injury reports, recent sparring footage, or public statements affecting perceived readiness before the event date.

### Key factors

- Gero Arias contract trades at 30¢ (60% implied probability), creating near-parity with Viruzz's 40¢, suggesting traders assess this matchup as genuinely competitive rather than heavily favoring either fighter
- Low 24-hour volume ($2) on the Gero-Virusz contracts indicates minimal recent trading activity, making the 40% price potentially sensitive to new information or larger trades
- Top-volume contract (Sevillano vs La Parce at $46 24h vol) shows uneven market attention across event bouts; relative disinterest in some fights may reflect differences in fighter prominence or perceived predictability
- No scheduled event date provided in available data; proximity to the event and confirmation of fighter participation would be standard resolution drivers
- The 13% probability for TheGrefg against IlloJuan suggests substantial variance in expected competitive balance across the card's different matchups

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/boxing
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=boxing

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.