# Will new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in the Bozeman, MT CBSA in 2026 be above 1,400 units

> Above 950 units leads at 96%, runner-up 93% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 28 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/bozpermits
Updated: 2026-09-24T03:20:50.819Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-05-31

## Headline

- Leader: Above 950 units at 96%
- Runner-up: Above 1,100 units at 93%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $949

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 950 units | 96¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-privately-owned-housing-units-authorized-kalshi-kxbozpermits-27may31-t950 |
| Above 1,100 units | 93¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-privately-owned-housing-units-authorized-kalshi-kxbozpermits-27may31-t1100 |
| Above 1,250 units | 79¢ | −7pp | $50 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-privately-owned-housing-units-authorized-kalshi-kxbozpermits-27may31-t1250 |
| Above 1,400 units | 32¢ | +1pp | $899 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-privately-owned-housing-units-authorized-kalshi-kxbozpermits-27may31-t1400 |
| Above 1,550 units | 18¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-privately-owned-housing-units-authorized-kalshi-kxbozpermits-27may31-t1550 |
| Above 1,700 units | 3¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-privately-owned-housing-units-authorized-kalshi-kxbozpermits-27may31-t1700 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 950 units | Above 1,250 units | Above 1,400 units |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | 94 | — | — |
| 2026-09-06 | — | 79 | 33 |
| 2026-09-12 | — | — | 35 |
| 2026-09-17 | — | 72 | 23 |
| 2026-09-18 | — | — | 24 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-17 · Above 1,400 units −12pp 35→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · Above 1,250 units −7pp 79→72¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · Above 1,700 units −4pp 7→3¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · Above 1,550 units +3pp 10→13¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Markets are pricing an 86% chance that Bozeman, Montana's building permit authorizations for new housing will exceed 1,100 units in 2026, with notably lower probabilities for higher thresholds (21% for 1,400+ units). This reflects expectations around regional housing demand, construction capacity, and local permitting trends in a market that has experienced significant growth pressure. The probability is driven by recent construction activity levels and typical seasonal variation in permit issuance, balanced against potential supply constraints or economic headwinds that could dampen building activity. Resolution depends on final 2026 permit data published by the U.S. Census Bureau, typically released in early 2027, which will show the actual count of residential units authorized across the Bozeman CBSA during the calendar year.

### Key factors

- Year-to-date 2026 permit authorizations through mid-August compared to full-year historical averages for the Bozeman CBSA
- Recent annual housing permit volume trends in the region—whether 2023-2025 averaged above or below 1,100-1,400 unit thresholds
- Inventory of approved but not-yet-permitted projects and typical seasonal concentration of permit issuance in Bozeman-area jurisdictions
- Economic indicators affecting regional construction: mortgage rates, lending standards, and employment growth in the Bozeman area
- Local zoning or permitting policy changes implemented in 2026 that would accelerate or constrain new residential authorizations

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/bozpermits
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=bozpermits

## License

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