# Will Chapecoense SC record the first goal of the game

> Closed. Last odds frozen 4 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/brasileiroftts
Updated: 2026-07-23T01:20:51.389Z
Category: sports
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-08-05

## Headline

- Probability: 43% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CR Vasco da Gama RJ | 49¢ | +48pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-cr-vasco-da-gama-rj-record-the-first-goal-of-kalshi-kxbrasileiroftts-26jul25vdgmir-vdg |
| Mirassol FC SP | 36¢ | +34pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mirassol-fc-sp-record-the-first-goal-of-the-g-kalshi-kxbrasileiroftts-26jul25vdgmir-mir |
| SC Corinthians SP | 62¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sc-corinthians-sp-record-the-first-goal-of-th-kalshi-kxbrasileiroftts-26jul23corcr-cor |
| Clube do Remo PA | 23¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-clube-do-remo-pa-record-the-first-goal-of-the-kalshi-kxbrasileiroftts-26jul23corcr-cr |
| Botafogo FR RJ | 57¢ | −8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-botafogo-fr-rj-record-the-first-goal-of-the-g-kalshi-kxbrasileiroftts-26jul23botvit-bot |
| EC Vitoria BA | 29¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ec-vitoria-ba-record-the-first-goal-of-the-ga-kalshi-kxbrasileiroftts-26jul23botvit-vit |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | 2 |
| 2026-07-18 | 2 |
| 2026-07-20 | 23 |
| 2026-07-21 | 18 |
| 2026-07-23 | 43 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-23 · CR Vasco da Gama RJ +48pp 2→50¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-20 · Botafogo FR RJ +38pp 2→40¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-23 · Mirassol FC SP +34pp 1→35¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-21 · Botafogo FR RJ −8pp 40→32¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-20 · EC Vitoria BA +5pp 2→7¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 40% probability reflects the current market assessment that Chapecoense SC will score the opening goal in their upcoming match against Coritiba FC PR. The market is pricing this as slightly below even odds, suggesting Coritiba is favored to score first based on factors like relative team form, offensive capability, or home-field advantage. The probability will be resolved when the match concludes and the first goal is officially recorded. Key drivers of the current level likely include recent goal-scoring records of both teams, head-to-head historical patterns, and lineup strength. The match kickoff represents the singular catalyst that will eliminate all uncertainty around this outcome.

### Key factors

- Chapecoense's recent goal-scoring rate in opening phases of matches compared to historical baseline
- Coritiba's offensive production statistics and conversion efficiency, particularly early in matches
- Head-to-head historical data on which team has scored first in previous matchups
- Team lineup availability, injuries to key attacking players, or recent tactical adjustments
- Venue location (home/away) and any historical correlation to first-goal advantage for either side

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/brasileiroftts
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=brasileiroftts

## License

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