# Brazil GDP Growth in Q1 2026 — 1.9%–2.2%

> Closed. Last odds frozen 7 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/brazil-gdp-growth-q1
Updated: 2026-05-31T13:20:12.931Z
Category: economy · Topic: recession
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-29

## Headline

- Leader: 1.9%–2.2% at 48%
- Runner-up: 1.5%–1.8% at 37%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $720

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.9%–2.2% | 48¢ | −8pp | $540 | polymarket | /markets/brazil-gdp-growth-in-q1-2026-1922-polymarket-0x2140b4ef272260b2b04067db20f4ab5753c33af1ff013ea7846293711f150f90 |
| 1.5%–1.8% | 37¢ | +52pp | $180 | polymarket | /markets/brazil-gdp-growth-in-q1-2026-1518-polymarket-0xfda858216120c9224a3c98df14a24e4dee4168a9c01664b64122dc6ebc022f67 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 1.9%–2.2% | 1.5%–1.8% |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 52 | 33 |
| 2026-05-25 | 45 | 52 |
| 2026-05-29 | 42 | 48 |
| 2026-05-30 | — | 100 |

_22 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market estimates a 21% probability that Brazil's GDP grew between 1.9% and 2.2% in the first quarter of 2026. The low probability reflects expectations for stronger growth, driven by Brazil's recent economic momentum and accommodative monetary policy. The significant 13-percentage-point gap between Kalshi and Polymarket suggests disagreement about growth trajectory, with Kalshi traders pricing in higher odds of this mid-range outcome. The resolution will depend on official GDP data released by Brazil's statistical agency (typically in early June), which measures actual quarterly growth. Key variables include commodity price movements affecting export demand, agricultural production, domestic consumption trends, and currency stability relative to the US dollar.

### Key factors

- Brazil's official Q1 2026 GDP release date and preliminary estimates from the statistical agency will directly determine the outcome
- Recent quarterly growth rates and trend momentum in late 2025 establish the baseline for expectations about Q1 acceleration or deceleration
- Commodity prices and exchange rates during Q1 2026 materially affect export competitiveness and import costs for Brazilian producers
- The 13-percentage-point probability gap between exchanges indicates material disagreement about whether growth falls into this specific band versus adjacent ranges (lower or higher)
- Central bank policy decisions and credit conditions through Q1 2026 influence consumer and business spending patterns

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/brazil-gdp-growth-q1
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=brazil-gdp-growth-q1
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/recession

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