# Brazil Série B

> Winner: Londrina leads at 49%, runner-up 49% across 20 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/brazil-srie-b
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:42.576Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-12

## Headline

- Leader: Winner: Londrina at 49%
- Runner-up: Winner: Athletic at 49%
- Outcomes: 20 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner: Londrina | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/brazil-srie-b-winner-londrina-polymarket-0xd60d86f087030e9c2636347d37bd5f500387d565d45de9f5db4376f8477415c8 |
| Winner: Athletic | 49¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/brazil-srie-b-winner-athletic-polymarket-0x9201ff02e0c7b1b0388f138a82c08fc4edd47265b041f31a2e6eacef6039a43d |
| Winner: Criciúma | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/brazil-srie-b-winner-cricima-polymarket-0x42357e9ab569d2c5e5639355827c6be2a9a8e90ce7f6d7175a655d8029ee6b47 |
| Winner: Vila Nova | 49¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/brazil-srie-b-winner-vila-nova-polymarket-0x68da91bc47d2929d5082483cecf6d217b7ef2174078aa0501e340e8a72ff0ba8 |
| Winner: São Bernardo | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/brazil-srie-b-winner-so-bernardo-polymarket-0xdff20ab120d0b7445e94c430d15275116ba5aabe01350a896e273df191fe6444 |
| Winner: Sport | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/brazil-srie-b-winner-sport-polymarket-0xf5de0ed066e28a8bee4acf1a839dcb4735aed24515a12b3ccc7d3726c84ac7c2 |
| Winner: Atlético Goianiense | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/brazil-srie-b-winner-atltico-goianiense-polymarket-0xaf41e57b9008de5ac0cb16be5dea28d731a5d1f3cd70c8b9ab256bd7bfa73eba |
| Winner: Fortaleza | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/brazil-srie-b-winner-fortaleza-polymarket-0x217019f7bcc7539245217dbaf92f0b2bdd4cec0471e7ad8a4ce03fdb79104336 |
| Winner: Goiás | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/brazil-srie-b-winner-gois-polymarket-0x9cb04b5060daea23d7ff9dc89066bbbe027d08efcaece46cc36c52602156a7f8 |
| Winner: Avaí | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/brazil-srie-b-winner-ava-polymarket-0x20c74599be1bd611561ffcc3fc6ffa4aae4a0d8ff5b6728ffdf7e4a5b97b9d3e |
| Winner: Ceará | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/brazil-srie-b-winner-cear-polymarket-0x9202aaeecf3b3048c884282b2a11d1805dfc0cdcaf223a6dd5500cc6c0c0fba4 |
| Winner: CRB | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/brazil-srie-b-winner-crb-polymarket-0xe56aadb5e3d5c74b0d717acf4bac10302d4886d0cec7a12934a296745497a84a |
| Winner: Cuiabá | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/brazil-srie-b-winner-cuiab-polymarket-0x4adec7f9d64312449dbcc7466208c56e4983bec21f933cbca3ffe6ea76892a5d |
| Winner: América Mineiro | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/brazil-srie-b-winner-amrica-mineiro-polymarket-0xb68a132792ca277f676652c67d72675f721238c64dfd5b779f9d73ebea32f457 |
| Winner: Novorizontino | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/brazil-srie-b-winner-novorizontino-polymarket-0x683138a7c190492edd070b58b5b5df2e8c9c06a25a64fe085ad27359ee68dc1b |
| Winner: Ponte Preta | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/brazil-srie-b-winner-ponte-preta-polymarket-0x60b4c417cd13ebd8d0a4813207bfe140a71d88d97c7f4d8ccfe9202435fda375 |
| Winner: Juventude | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/brazil-srie-b-winner-juventude-polymarket-0xef8dfc183693d474183a9ae1f744bb8fac2274dff288525481bee00af0243172 |
| Winner: Botafogo-SP | 48¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/brazil-srie-b-winner-botafogo-sp-polymarket-0x7c026457f87b3a6633ccf92c61f5921e51c1f78dd6a15afa210c4c4b46eb7164 |
| Winner: Náutico | 48¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/brazil-srie-b-winner-nutico-polymarket-0x3f631cd4212d986c63609ae4218cc0c9f38fa9fe8b94e9dfaf4bf4cf0724007d |
| Winner: Operário Ferroviário | 48¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/brazil-srie-b-winner-operrio-ferrovirio-polymarket-0x775ecd7407a405df9ba10179346633cec53d2b4769db2ea9974455499948b807 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Winner: Londrina | Winner: Athletic | Winner: Criciúma |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | 48 | 50 | 48 |
| 2026-04-30 | 49 | 50 | 49 |
| 2026-05-02 | 49 | — | 49 |
| 2026-05-08 | 48 | 49 | 48 |
| 2026-05-09 | 48 | — | 48 |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

The 51% probability indicates that market participants view Flamengo as the marginal favorite to win Brazil's Série A championship, with a near-even chance assigned to competing outcomes. Flamengo holds a thin edge over runner-up São Paulo and other contenders, reflecting the competitive balance of the league at this stage of the season. The probability would shift based on team performance in remaining matches, injury developments to key players, and relative momentum heading into the final stretch. The championship will be decided when all regular season matches conclude and, if necessary, playoff fixtures are completed later in 2026. Current market activity shows moderate volume on the leading contract ($106 in 24h trading) compared to alternatives, suggesting some confidence in the current assessment but limited conviction.

### Key factors

- Flamengo's current league position and point differential relative to São Paulo and other top-four contenders
- Injury status and availability of key players on leading teams
- Head-to-head records and remaining fixture difficulty for title contenders
- Historical performance patterns of these clubs in championship run-ins
- Market liquidity concentration: 51¢ price has ~$106 daily volume vs ~$56 for each alternative outcome

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/brazil-srie-b
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=brazil-srie-b

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.