# Brazil vs. Haiti

> Brazil leads at 88%, runner-up 8% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/brazil-vs-haiti
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:24.332Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-20

## Headline

- Leader: Brazil at 88%
- Runner-up: Haiti at 8%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $10K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 88¢ | −3pp | $686 | polymarket | /markets/brazil-vs-haiti-brazil-polymarket-0xc90381f6021b8dc8d07dd3d783d3927f34706f8ce1ed097b21cc92f31b5be076 |
| Haiti | 8¢ | +9pp | $9K | polymarket | /markets/brazil-vs-haiti-haiti-polymarket-0xc7a9f8cf846f6eba833fc69da7340af7c150e6cf72fc9501507a4431bbcde19e |
| Draw (Brazil vs. Haiti) | 7¢ | ±0 | $586 | polymarket | /markets/brazil-vs-haiti-draw-brazil-vs-haiti-polymarket-0xd414a4bdb4c86f835fb31e432ab3ea15e374fe7f39b6b0a224c7a521378967ea |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Brazil | Haiti | Draw (Brazil vs. Haiti) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 91 | — | — |
| 2026-05-01 | 89 | 9 | 9 |
| 2026-05-02 | 88 | 7 | — |
| 2026-05-06 | 91 | 8 | 8 |
| 2026-05-07 | 92 | 7 | 8 |
| 2026-05-08 | 89 | 16 | 7 |
| 2026-05-09 | — | — | 7 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · Haiti +9pp 7→16¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Brazil +3pp 88→91¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Brazil −3pp 92→89¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 35% probability reflects market expectations for Brazil to defeat Haiti in an upcoming match. The assessment sits between two major venues, with Polymarket pricing slightly higher than Kalshi, suggesting some disagreement about Brazil's chances despite their significant global ranking advantage. Brazil's performance history, squad depth, and home-field conditions typically favor them heavily against Haiti, yet the market hasn't priced this as a near-certain outcome. The key driver of movement would be team news—injuries, roster changes, or tactical shifts—appearing closer to match day, along with any head-to-head historical patterns or recent form updates that alter baseline expectations.

### Key factors

- Brazil holds a substantial FIFA ranking advantage over Haiti, yet the market prices this outcome below 50%, indicating either perceived vulnerability in Brazil's current form or uncertainty about match conditions
- Polymarket contracts show 3 percentage points higher probability than Kalshi, with asymmetric trading volume concentrated on Brazil-Morocco outcomes rather than direct Haiti engagement
- Haiti's implied win probability of 28% on Morocco-Haiti markets suggests some heterogeneity in how the team is being priced across different matchup structures
- Top trading volume concentrates on the Brazil-Morocco contract ($261 24h), not Haiti-Brazil directly, meaning Haiti pricing may reflect derivative inference rather than direct institutional attention
- The absence of volume on certain Haiti contracts ($0 24h) indicates thin liquidity and potential for repricing if new information surfaces about team availability or conditions

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/brazil-vs-haiti
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=brazil-vs-haiti

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.