# Brazil vs. Morocco

> Brazil leads at 61%, runner-up 24% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/brazil-vs-morocco
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:39.654Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-13

## Headline

- Leader: Brazil at 61%
- Runner-up: Draw (Brazil vs. Morocco) at 24%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $221

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 61¢ | ±0 | $138 | polymarket | /markets/brazil-vs-morocco-brazil-polymarket-0xa75053ffa630e41fdc08a0885fe0614716ecb13061ac460914bfe498038d5364 |
| Draw (Brazil vs. Morocco) | 24¢ | ±0 | $83 | polymarket | /markets/brazil-vs-morocco-draw-brazil-vs-morocco-polymarket-0xb20f96ba6ccf4555d4e3adcc97a561512ef27af67183b52d32283066d4a81853 |
| Morocco | 17¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/brazil-vs-morocco-morocco-polymarket-0xa4781f5d97b6fe28ca7a69353b89e3401a9483a4c7bfc2f493c6cca138bd9c82 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Brazil | Draw (Brazil vs. Morocco) | Morocco |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 62 | 23 | 19 |
| 2026-05-01 | 61 | 23 | — |
| 2026-05-02 | 60 | 22 | 17 |
| 2026-05-03 | 60 | 23 | 19 |
| 2026-05-09 | — | 24 | 18 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 34% probability reflects the market's assessment that Brazil has roughly a two-in-three chance of winning this matchup against Morocco. The odds place Brazil as the clear favorite, with contract prices on Polymarket showing Brazil trading around 59 cents versus Morocco at 16 cents. The probability could shift based on team form, injury reports, and tactical adjustments in the weeks leading up to the match. A 4-percentage-point gap between venues suggests some disagreement about the outcome, potentially reflecting different liquidity levels or trader composition. The resolution will depend entirely on the match result whenever it is scheduled to be played.

### Key factors

- Brazil's current FIFA ranking and recent competitive record compared to Morocco's performance in 2026
- Injury status of key players for both squads at the time of the match
- Head-to-head historical results and tactical matchups between the two teams
- Volume concentration: Brazil contract at 59¢ on Polymarket has $175 24h volume versus Morocco at 16¢ with $261 volume, suggesting less consensus on the favorite
- Venue-level disagreement: Polymarket averaging 35% versus Kalshi at 31% indicates different market signals across platforms

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/brazil-vs-morocco
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=brazil-vs-morocco

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.