# Brazilian GDP (YoY) in Feb 2027

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 46% across 14 contracts — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/brazilgdp
Updated: 2026-08-10T07:20:52.133Z
Category: economy · Topic: recession
Status: active
Closes: 2027-03-02

## Headline

- Probability: 46% (liquidity-weighted across 14 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (14 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (14)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1.5% | 88¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-brazilian-gdp-yoy-for-q2-2026-be-above-15-abo-kalshi-kxbrazilgdp-26sep02-t1.5 |
| Above 1.6% | 75¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-brazilian-gdp-yoy-for-q2-2026-be-above-16-abo-kalshi-kxbrazilgdp-26sep02-t1.6 |
| Above 1.7% | 64¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-brazilian-gdp-yoy-for-q2-2026-be-above-17-abo-kalshi-kxbrazilgdp-26sep02-t1.7 |
| Above 1.8% | 53¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-brazilian-gdp-yoy-for-q2-2026-be-above-18-abo-kalshi-kxbrazilgdp-26sep02-t1.8 |
| Above 1.9% | 34¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-brazilian-gdp-yoy-for-q2-2026-be-above-19-abo-kalshi-kxbrazilgdp-26sep02-t1.9 |
| Above 2.0% | 22¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-brazilian-gdp-yoy-for-q2-2026-be-above-20-abo-kalshi-kxbrazilgdp-26sep02-t2.0 |
| Above 2.1% | 9¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-brazilian-gdp-yoy-for-q2-2026-be-above-21-abo-kalshi-kxbrazilgdp-26sep02-t2.1 |
| Above 0.5% | 86¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/brazilian-gdp-yoy-in-feb-2027-above-05-kalshi-kxbrazilgdp-27feb-t0.5 |
| Above 1.0% | 79¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/brazilian-gdp-yoy-in-feb-2027-above-10-kalshi-kxbrazilgdp-27feb-t1.0 |
| Above 1.5% | 64¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/brazilian-gdp-yoy-in-feb-2027-above-15-kalshi-kxbrazilgdp-27feb-t1.5 |
| Above 2.0% | 34¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/brazilian-gdp-yoy-in-feb-2027-above-20-kalshi-kxbrazilgdp-27feb-t2.0 |
| Above 2.5% | 19¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/brazilian-gdp-yoy-in-feb-2027-above-25-kalshi-kxbrazilgdp-27feb-t2.5 |
| Above 3.0% | 9¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/brazilian-gdp-yoy-in-feb-2027-above-30-kalshi-kxbrazilgdp-27feb-t3.0 |
| Above 3.5% | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/brazilian-gdp-yoy-in-feb-2027-above-35-kalshi-kxbrazilgdp-27feb-t3.5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | 55 |
| 2026-07-27 | 80 |
| 2026-08-03 | 61 |
| 2026-08-09 | 49 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 45% probability represents a forecast that Brazilian year-over-year GDP growth will exceed a specific threshold in February 2027. The current assessment reflects mixed economic signals: Brazil's recent quarterly growth has ranged between 1.5–1.9% annually, and the market is pricing in roughly even odds for stronger versus weaker performance ahead. Key drivers include monetary policy decisions by Brazil's central bank, inflation trajectory, and external commodity price movements affecting export demand. The February 2027 GDP release—scheduled by Brazil's statistics agency (IBGE) for late March 2027—will definitively resolve this forecast. Until then, traders are monitoring real interest rate expectations, currency stability, and incoming labor market data as leading indicators of growth momentum.

### Key factors

- Q2 2026 Brazilian GDP growth has been tracking in the 1.5–1.9% YoY range based on available high-frequency data and consensus expectations
- Central bank policy stance: higher real interest rates (currently around 10.5% nominal) are expected to moderate growth in H2 2026, creating downward pressure
- External demand and commodity prices remain volatile; a sustained decline in agricultural or energy prices could weigh on Q4 2026/Q1 2027 growth
- The IBGE will release February 2027 GDP figures in late March 2027, providing the definitive outcome; preliminary indicators arrive weeks earlier
- Real exchange rate depreciation could boost exports but reflects underlying inflation concerns that may constrain domestic demand

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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