# Will inflation in Brazil be above 4.00% in April 2026

> Above 4.20% leads at 95%, runner-up 91% across 20 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 40 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/brazilinf
Updated: 2026-06-08T03:20:11.687Z
Category: economy · Topic: recession
Status: active
Closes: 2027-03-31

## Headline

- Leader: Above 4.20% at 95%
- Runner-up: Above 4.40% at 91%
- Outcomes: 20 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $102

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4.20% | 95¢ | +1pp | $100 | kalshi | /markets/will-inflation-in-brazil-be-above-420-in-jul-2026-kalshi-kxbrazilinf-26jul-t4.20 |
| Above 4.40% | 91¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-inflation-in-brazil-be-above-440-in-jul-2026-kalshi-kxbrazilinf-26jul-t4.40 |
| Above 4.30% | 90¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-inflation-in-brazil-be-above-430-in-jul-2026-kalshi-kxbrazilinf-26jul-t4.30 |
| Above 4.50% | 83¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-inflation-in-brazil-be-above-450-in-jul-2026-kalshi-kxbrazilinf-26jul-t4.50 |
| Above 4.50% | 70¢ | ±0 | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-inflation-in-brazil-be-above-450-in-may-2026-kalshi-kxbrazilinf-26may-t4.50 |
| Above 4.60% | 66¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-inflation-in-brazil-be-above-460-in-jul-2026-kalshi-kxbrazilinf-26jul-t4.60 |
| Above 4.30% | 58¢ | −37pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-inflation-in-brazil-be-above-430-in-jun-2026-kalshi-kxbrazilinf-26jun-t4.30 |
| Above 4.70% | 54¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-inflation-in-brazil-be-above-470-in-jul-2026-kalshi-kxbrazilinf-26jul-t4.70 |
| Above 4.80% | 42¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-inflation-in-brazil-be-above-480-in-jul-2026-kalshi-kxbrazilinf-26jul-t4.80 |
| Above 4.90% | 30¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-inflation-in-brazil-be-above-490-in-jul-2026-kalshi-kxbrazilinf-26jul-t4.90 |
| In Dec 2026 | 28¢ | −5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-inflation-in-brazil-be-below-400-in-dec-2026-kalshi-kxbrazilinf-26dec-4.00 |
| Above 4.90% | 23¢ | −9pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-inflation-in-brazil-be-above-490-in-jun-2026-kalshi-kxbrazilinf-26jun-t4.90 |
| Above 4.70% | 21¢ | −19pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-inflation-in-brazil-be-above-470-in-jun-2026-kalshi-kxbrazilinf-26jun-t4.70 |
| Above 4.20% | 21¢ | −11pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-inflation-in-brazil-be-above-420-in-jun-2026-kalshi-kxbrazilinf-26jun-t4.20 |
| Above 5.00% | 20¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-inflation-in-brazil-be-above-500-in-jul-2026-kalshi-kxbrazilinf-26jul-t5.00 |
| Above 5.00% | 13¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-inflation-in-brazil-be-above-500-in-jun-2026-kalshi-kxbrazilinf-26jun-t5.00 |
| Above 5.10% | 12¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-inflation-in-brazil-be-above-510-in-jun-2026-kalshi-kxbrazilinf-26jun-t5.10 |
| Above 5.10% | 10¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-inflation-in-brazil-be-above-510-in-jul-2026-kalshi-kxbrazilinf-26jul-t5.10 |
| Above 5.20% | 8¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-inflation-in-brazil-be-above-520-in-jul-2026-kalshi-kxbrazilinf-26jul-t5.20 |
| Above 5.20% | 4¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-inflation-in-brazil-be-above-520-in-jun-2026-kalshi-kxbrazilinf-26jun-t5.20 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 4.20% | Above 4.40% | Above 4.30% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | 94 | 91 | 93 |
| 2026-06-07 | 95 | — | 90 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-07 · Above 4.30% −37pp 95→58¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-07 · Above 4.70% −19pp 43→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-05 · Above 4.30% +15pp 79→94¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-04 · Above 4.50% +13pp 56→69¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-07 · Above 4.20% −11pp 72→61¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability estimates the likelihood that Brazil's year-over-year CPI inflation will exceed 4.0% when measured through April 2026. The current 65% probability reflects recent inflation dynamics in Brazil, where the Central Bank has been managing price pressures through monetary policy adjustments. The main drivers include currency fluctuations against the US dollar, which affect import costs, and domestic demand conditions. Market pricing shows significant uncertainty around the 4.0% threshold—contracts betting on inflation above 3.6% trade much higher than those above 4.0%—suggesting sentiment clusters around the 3.6-3.8% range. The resolution will depend on actual CPI data released by Brazil's statistics agency, with the official April 2026 inflation figures providing the definitive outcome. Real-time factors include commodity price movements, labor market conditions, and the Central Bank's interest-rate decisions through early 2026.

### Key factors

- The 4.0% contract trades at only 3 cents versus 64 cents for the 3.6% threshold, indicating market expectation that inflation settles in the 3.6-3.8% band rather than exceeding 4.0%
- Brazil's currency strength or weakness versus the dollar directly impacts import prices and inflation; recent volatility in the real creates uncertainty about the exact inflation trajectory
- The Central Bank's policy rate decisions between now and April 2026 will significantly influence inflation expectations and actual price growth
- Commodity price movements, particularly oil and agricultural products, are key drivers of Brazilian inflation given export-dependent sectors
- Official CPI data will be released by IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) in early May 2026, providing the definitive resolution figure

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=brazilinf
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/recession

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