# Will Renan Santos be on the ballot in the next Brazilian presidential election

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 63% across 4 contracts — refreshed 32 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/brballot
Updated: 2026-06-26T00:20:49.306Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-10-04

## Headline

- Probability: 63% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 84¢ | −1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-luiz-incio-lula-da-silva-be-on-the-ballot-in-kalshi-kxbrballot-26-lula |
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 73¢ | +1pp | $22 | kalshi | /markets/will-flvio-bolsonaro-be-on-the-ballot-in-the-next-kalshi-kxbrballot-26-fbol |
| Jair Bolsonaro | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jair-bolsonaro-be-on-the-ballot-in-the-next-b-kalshi-kxbrballot-26-jb |
| Renan Santos | 92¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-renan-santos-be-on-the-ballot-in-the-next-bra-kalshi-kxbrballot-26-rsan |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 50 |
| 2026-06-12 | 74 |
| 2026-06-18 | 85 |
| 2026-06-25 | 73 |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability indicates market participants believe there is roughly a two-in-three chance that Renan Santos will appear on the ballot for Brazil's next presidential election. The current 66% level reflects uncertainty about whether legal or regulatory obstacles might prevent his candidacy. Key drivers include his eligibility status under Brazilian electoral law, any pending legal judgments that could affect his candidacy, and decisions by Brazil's electoral authorities regarding registration deadlines. Resolution will depend on formal candidate registration and certification by the Superior Electoral Court, which typically occurs in the months immediately preceding a presidential election. The exact timing depends on when Brazil's next presidential election is scheduled.

### Key factors

- Renan Santos' current legal eligibility status under Brazilian electoral code provisions
- Any pending court rulings or decisions regarding disqualification grounds in the relevant timeframe
- Whether Renan Santos submits candidacy registration documents to electoral authorities by required deadlines
- Certification decisions by Brazil's Superior Electoral Court on candidate qualification
- Changes in Brazilian electoral law or jurisprudence affecting eligibility criteria between now and election registration

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/brballot
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=brballot
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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