# Will PSD hold 1 seats in all 27 Brazilian governorships (the 26 states and the Federal District), counted together as a single aggregate body for purposes of this Contract after the 2026 Brazilian gubernatorial elections

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 26% across 3 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/brgovmostseats
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:39.815Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-10-04

## Headline

- Probability: 26% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSD | 31¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-psd-hold-1-seats-in-all-27-brazilian-governor-kalshi-kxbrgovmostseats-26oct04-psd |
| PL | 21¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-pl-hold-1-seats-in-all-27-brazilian-governors-kalshi-kxbrgovmostseats-26oct04-pl |
| União Progressista | 27¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-unio-progressista-hold-1-seats-in-all-27-braz-kalshi-kxbrgovmostseats-26oct04-upro |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-23 | 22 |

_1 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This contract asks whether the PSD party will hold at least one governorship seat across all 27 Brazilian states and federal district after the October 2026 gubernatorial elections. At 26% probability, markets assess this as unlikely but plausible. The PSD's current strength in several state-level races and its historical positioning as a moderate centrist party support higher odds, while consolidation among larger parties and regional power shifts could reduce their presence. The main driver of uncertainty is the fragmentation of Brazil's political landscape and how voter preferences align across diverse regional contests. Resolution occurs after the October 2, 2026 election when official results determine whether PSD wins at least one governorship seat.

### Key factors

- PSD's current performance in opinion polling across major state races relative to competitors
- The degree of political consolidation or fragmentation among center-right and centrist parties competing in 2026
- Regional voting patterns and whether PSD maintains strongholds in specific states where it currently has influence
- Whether major national political developments between now and October 2026 reshape state-level alliances and candidate viability
- The threshold for this outcome is extremely low (one seat minimum across 27 contests), making complete party elimination unlikely despite competitive pressure

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/brgovmostseats
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=brgovmostseats
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.