# Will Brazil annual inflation rate before 2027 be above 5.50%

> Above 4.75% leads at 95%, runner-up 89% across 9 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 10 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/brinfhigh
Updated: 2026-06-26T10:20:51.202Z
Category: economy · Topic: recession
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Above 4.75% at 95%
- Runner-up: Above 5.00% at 89%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $71

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4.75% | 95¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-brazil-annual-inflation-rate-before-2027-be-a-kalshi-kxbrinfhigh-27jan01-t4.75 |
| Above 5.00% | 89¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-brazil-annual-inflation-rate-before-2027-be-a-kalshi-kxbrinfhigh-27jan01-t5.00 |
| Above 5.50% | 84¢ | +11pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-brazil-annual-inflation-rate-before-2027-be-a-kalshi-kxbrinfhigh-27jan01-t5.50 |
| Above 5.25% | 80¢ | −33pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-brazil-annual-inflation-rate-before-2027-be-a-kalshi-kxbrinfhigh-27jan01-t5.25 |
| Above 5.75% | 46¢ | +6pp | $32 | kalshi | /markets/will-brazil-annual-inflation-rate-before-2027-be-a-kalshi-kxbrinfhigh-27jan01-t5.75 |
| Above 6.00% | 33¢ | +13pp | $34 | kalshi | /markets/will-brazil-annual-inflation-rate-before-2027-be-a-kalshi-kxbrinfhigh-27jan01-t6.00 |
| Above 6.25% | 22¢ | +9pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-brazil-annual-inflation-rate-before-2027-be-a-kalshi-kxbrinfhigh-27jan01-t6.25 |
| Above 6.50% | 7¢ | −17pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-brazil-annual-inflation-rate-before-2027-be-a-kalshi-kxbrinfhigh-27jan01-t6.50 |
| Above 6.75% | 3¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-brazil-annual-inflation-rate-before-2027-be-a-kalshi-kxbrinfhigh-27jan01-t6.75 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 4.75% | Above 5.00% | Above 5.50% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-02 | 61 | 61 | 6 |
| 2026-06-12 | 93 | 85 | 38 |
| 2026-06-13 | 94 | 85 | 43 |
| 2026-06-21 | — | 89 | 58 |
| 2026-06-25 | 90 | 87 | 77 |

_16 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-20 · Above 5.75% −34pp 51→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Above 5.25% −33pp 79→46¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Above 5.25% +24pp 46→70¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · Above 6.50% −17pp 24→7¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · Above 6.00% +13pp 32→45¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The probability reflects market expectations that Brazil's inflation rate will exceed 4.50% over the next six months, with declining confidence at higher thresholds. Markets currently price in very high certainty (96%) that inflation stays above 4.50%, moderate confidence (94%) above 4.75%, and substantially lower conviction above 5.50%. Inflation trajectories are driven by monetary policy decisions from the Central Bank, currency depreciation effects on import costs, and domestic demand pressures. The Central Bank's interest rate decisions and inflation data releases through year-end 2026 will be critical in determining whether inflation accelerates beyond current forecasts or moderates toward the 4.50% threshold that most traders expect to be breached.

### Key factors

- Current year-to-date Brazilian inflation and the Central Bank's stated inflation target corridor for 2026-2027
- Recent Central Bank interest rate decisions and forward guidance on policy rates through end of 2026
- Brazilian real exchange rate movements and their historical correlation with imported inflation
- Central Bank inflation forecast revisions from official monetary policy reports
- Distance between current official inflation data and the 4.50%, 4.75%, and 5.50% contract thresholds

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/brinfhigh
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=brinfhigh
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/recession

## License

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