# Will Anastasiia and Salsa win Britain's Got Talent

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 11% across 8 contracts — refreshed 58 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/britainsgottalent
Updated: 2026-05-28T21:20:08.458Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-07

## Headline

- Probability: 11% (liquidity-weighted across 8 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season 19?: Celestial | 8¢ | −1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-celestial-win-britains-got-talent-season-19-c-kalshi-kxbritainsgottalent-26may31-cel |
| Season 19?: The Hawkstone Farmers Choir | 18¢ | +3pp | $785 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-hawkstone-farmers-choir-win-britains-got-kalshi-kxbritainsgottalent-26may31-haw |
| Season 19?: Rafferty Coope | 7¢ | −2pp | $199 | kalshi | /markets/will-rafferty-coope-win-britains-got-talent-season-kalshi-kxbritainsgottalent-26may31-raf |
| Season 19?: Sonny Green | 34¢ | ±0 | $151 | kalshi | /markets/will-sonny-green-win-britains-got-talent-season-19-kalshi-kxbritainsgottalent-26may31-son |
| Season 19?: LMA | 3¢ | −1pp | $113 | kalshi | /markets/will-lma-win-britains-got-talent-season-19-lma-kalshi-kxbritainsgottalent-26may31-lma |
| Season 19?: Ted Hill | 3¢ | −2pp | $65 | kalshi | /markets/will-ted-hill-win-britains-got-talent-season-19-te-kalshi-kxbritainsgottalent-26may31-ted |
| Season 19?: Anastasiia and Salsa | 3¢ | ±0 | $30 | kalshi | /markets/will-anastasiia-and-salsa-win-britains-got-talent-kalshi-kxbritainsgottalent-26may31-ana |
| Season 19?: Matty Juniosa | 12¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-matty-juniosa-win-britains-got-talent-season-kalshi-kxbritainsgottalent-26may31-mat |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-19 | 9 |
| 2026-05-21 | 15 |
| 2026-05-28 | 13 |

_10 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-21 · Season 19?: Sonny Green +16pp 7→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-21 · Season 19?: Matty Juniosa +7pp 6→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-21 · Season 19?: Rafferty Coope +6pp 9→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-22 · Season 19?: Sonny Green +6pp 23→29¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-21 · Season 19?: LMA −5pp 20→15¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Anastasiia and Salsa, a dance act, is assigned a 13% probability of winning Britain's Got Talent Season 19, based on aggregated contract prices. This reflects market participants' assessment that the act has roughly a 1-in-8 chance compared to other competitors. The probability reflects their positioning against stronger-favored acts like Sonny Green (10¢) and Rafferty Coope (13¢), suggesting the market views them as a competitive but not frontrunner act. Key factors affecting this probability include audience voting patterns, performance consistency across rounds, and relative strength of competing acts. The act's probability will likely shift significantly after live performances, when judges' feedback and audience reactions become known. Season 19's finale results will definitively resolve whether they advance and ultimately win.

### Key factors

- Anastasiia and Salsa's trading volume ($70 in 24 hours) is notably lower than leading acts like Sonny Green ($864), suggesting less market conviction around this particular prediction
- They are priced slightly higher (11¢ contract price) than their 13% aggregated probability, indicating some variance in market assessment across the 8 tracked contracts
- The tight clustering of favorites (Sonny Green 10¢, Rafferty Coope 13¢, Matty Juniosa 8¢) suggests a competitive field with no dominant frontrunner, leaving room for any mid-tier act to advance
- Dance and performance acts have varying historical win rates on BGT depending on judge preferences and audience demographics in a given season
- The probability will resolve through a series of knockout rounds before the final, meaning this metric will shift substantially as the competition progresses

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/britainsgottalent
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=britainsgottalent

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.