# Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 31% across 3 contracts — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/brpres
Updated: 2026-06-26T07:20:50.436Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-10-25

## Headline

- Probability: 31% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $7K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 58¢ | −1pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-luiz-incio-lula-da-silva-win-the-2026-brazili-kalshi-kxbrpres-26-lula |
| Renan Santos | 10¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-renan-santos-win-the-2026-brazilian-president-kalshi-kxbrpres-26-rsan |
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 25¢ | −1pp | $952 | kalshi | /markets/will-flvio-bolsonaro-win-the-2026-brazilian-presid-kalshi-kxbrpres-26-fbol |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 22 |
| 2026-06-12 | 31 |
| 2026-06-19 | 33 |
| 2026-06-26 | 35 |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-24 · Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva +4pp 54→58¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 17% probability indicates that current market participants view Fernando Haddad as an unlikely winner of Brazil's 2026 presidential election. Haddad, who lost the 2022 runoff to Jair Bolsonaro and currently serves as Finance Minister under President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, faces headwinds from both consolidation of right-wing opposition candidates and potential economic conditions that could affect voter sentiment by election day. The probability could shift materially based on economic performance metrics, approval ratings, and whether opposition parties successfully unite behind a single candidate. The Brazilian presidential election scheduled for October 2026 represents the primary catalyst that will ultimately resolve this market, though intervening months will likely see significant probability swings tied to polling data, legislative actions, and political developments.

### Key factors

- Haddad's performance as Finance Minister and Brazil's economic trajectory through 2026, including inflation and growth rates, which directly influence incumbent coalition viability
- Consolidation or fragmentation of right-wing opposition candidates, as a unified challenger typically polls stronger than a divided field
- Current polling trends showing Haddad's standing relative to leading opposition candidates, with most recent surveys indicating he trails principal rivals
- Approval ratings of President Lula and the broader left-wing coalition, since Haddad's prospects depend substantially on voter satisfaction with the current administration
- Turnout patterns and electoral dynamics, particularly among youth voters and regions where opposition strength has historically been concentrated

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/brpres
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=brpres
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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