# Will the margin of victory for Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election be between 5% and 10%

> Lula da Silva, 0-5% leads at 40%, runner-up 27% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 14 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/brpres1mov
Updated: 2026-09-21T23:21:00.677Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-10-04

## Headline

- Leader: Lula da Silva, 0-5% at 40%
- Runner-up: Flávio Bolsonaro, 0-5% at 27%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $111

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lula da Silva, 0-5% | 40¢ | −6pp | $7 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-lula-da-silva-in-th-kalshi-kxbrpres1mov-brpres26-lsil-p2 |
| Flávio Bolsonaro, 0-5% | 27¢ | +3pp | $27 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-flvio-bolsonaro-in-kalshi-kxbrpres1mov-brpres26-fbol-p2 |
| Lula da Silva, 5-10% | 9¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-lula-da-silva-in-th-kalshi-kxbrpres1mov-brpres26-lsil-p7 |
| Flávio Bolsonaro, 5-10% | 3¢ | +1pp | $77 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-flvio-bolsonaro-in-kalshi-kxbrpres1mov-brpres26-fbol-p7 |
| Lula da Silva, ≥15% | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-lula-da-silva-in-th-kalshi-kxbrpres1mov-brpres26-lsil-p57 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Lula da Silva, 0-5% | Flávio Bolsonaro, 0-5% | Lula da Silva, 5-10% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | 18 | — | 33 |
| 2026-08-25 | 19 | 6 | 33 |
| 2026-09-06 | 45 | 2 | — |
| 2026-09-07 | 44 | — | — |
| 2026-09-09 | 45 | 8 | 33 |
| 2026-09-12 | 35 | 18 | 19 |
| 2026-09-19 | 40 | 27 | 9 |

_25 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-18 · Lula da Silva, 0-5% +28pp 18→46¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · Lula da Silva, 0-5% −17pp 35→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · Flávio Bolsonaro, 0-5% +6pp 18→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-19 · Lula da Silva, 0-5% −6pp 46→40¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-19 · Lula da Silva, 5-10% −4pp 13→9¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract resolves if Flávio Bolsonaro wins Brazil's first-round presidential election with a margin between 5% and 10% over the second-place finisher. Currently priced at 10 cents, it reflects relatively low probability compared to stronger outcomes favoring Lula da Silva. Market pricing suggests traders view a Bolsonaro victory with this specific margin as unlikely, with heavier weight on either Lula winning by a larger margin (47 cents for Lula ≥15%) or Bolsonaro performing worse if he wins at all (4 cents for Bolsonaro 0-5%). The outcome depends on voter turnout patterns, regional voting coalitions, and whether either candidate consolidates support more effectively than opponents. The first-round vote is scheduled for October 2026, and pre-election polling trends through September will be the primary driver of repricing before resolution.

### Key factors

- Current polling spreads between Lula and Bolsonaro and whether the gap narrows or widens between now and October 2026
- Regional voting patterns in Northeast and Southeast Brazil, which historically determine margin magnitudes
- Voter turnout rates and turnout differential by demographic group, affecting both absolute votes and margin calculations
- Third-candidate performance and whether any challenger consolidates enough support to compress the top-two margin
- Late campaign events or economic data (inflation, unemployment, exchange rate moves) released in final months that could shift voter preference intensity

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/brpres1mov
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=brpres1mov
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.