# Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 42% across 2 contracts — refreshed 30 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/brpres1r
Updated: 2026-06-26T01:20:50.486Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-10-04

## Headline

- Probability: 42% (liquidity-weighted across 2 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $7

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 75¢ | +5pp | $7 | kalshi | /markets/will-luiz-incio-lula-da-silva-win-the-first-round-kalshi-kxbrpres1r-26oct04-lsil |
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 8¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-flvio-bolsonaro-win-the-first-round-of-the-20-kalshi-kxbrpres1r-26oct04-fbol |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 51 |
| 2026-06-12 | 39 |
| 2026-06-19 | 43 |
| 2026-06-25 | 41 |

_25 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-20 · Flávio Bolsonaro −6pp 23→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Flávio Bolsonaro −6pp 17→11¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva +5pp 63→68¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva +5pp 69→74¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Flávio Bolsonaro −4pp 11→7¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Flávio Bolsonaro will receive the most votes in Brazil's first-round presidential voting on October 2, 2026, without winning outright (requiring a runoff). The 19% assessment sits notably below frontrunner Lula at 42% but above other major candidates, positioning Bolsonaro as a secondary contender in current market sentiment. Key drivers include Flávio's political positioning as the primary Bolsonaro family representative after Jair's legal challenges, his base of support among conservative voters, and the fragmentation of Brazil's electoral landscape. The probability could shift significantly based on polling movements closer to the election, any major political developments affecting the Bolsonaro family's viability, or changes in voter consolidation patterns as candidates enter or withdraw from the race.

### Key factors

- Current polling aggregates show Flávio trailing Lula substantially but competitive with other major candidates in first-round vote-share scenarios
- Flávio's campaign viability depends partly on whether legal or political obstacles prevent his candidacy or significantly damage his support base
- Electoral consolidation patterns remain fluid; candidate dropout decisions and voter realignment in the final months could substantially alter first-round dynamics
- The Bolsonaro family's political capital and voter loyalty following the 2022 election and subsequent developments continue to shape his ceiling and floor

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/brpres1r
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=brpres1r
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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